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Mokrova M.V. Archive of the oral history of science: replenishment of personal collections in 2000 // Questions of the history of natural science and technology. - 2001. - No. 1. - S. 198-202.
8. Mokrova M.V. Oral history of science: from historiographical traditions to complex source studies: author. dis. ... cand. ist. sciences: spec. 07.00.09 / Mokrova Maria Vladimirovna; [Inst. of the history of natural science and technology. S.I. Vavilov RAS]. - M., 2004. - 30 p.
Nikitina D.A. Problems of oral history at the 7th international conference of historians // History of the USSR. No. 6. 1990.
Propp V.Ya. Folklore and reality. Featured Articles. M., 1976.
Orlov I.B. Oral history: genesis and development prospects // Patriotic history. 2006. No. 2. pp.136-148.
Selunskaya N.B. Problems of methodology of history. M., 2003.
Ursu D.P. Methodological problems of oral history // Source studies national history. M., 1989. S.3-33.
Oral history (Oral History): theory and practice: materials of the All-Russia. scientific seminar (Barnaul, September 25-26, 2006) / [comp. and scientific ed. T.K. Shcheglova]. - Barnaul: Barnaul. state ped. un-t, 2007. - 371 p.
Khubova D.N. Oral history. "Verba volant...?". M., 1997.
Schmidt S.O. Oral history in the system of source study of historical knowledge // The Way of the Historian. Selected writings source and historiography. M., 1997.
Topic 9. Methods for organizing historical data (4 hours)
Methods for grouping historical data. Text as a way of organizing historical data. Data summary. Tabular method of grouping data. Numerical models of statistical data systematization. Schemes as a way of systematizing historical data. Graphical ways of systematizing historical data: statistical graphs, charts, cartograms, cartograms.
Literature
Lyuty A.A. Map language: essence, system, functions. M., 2002.
Mannheim D., Rich R. Political Science. Research methods. M., 1999.
Mironov B.N. history in numbers. Mathematics in historical research. M., 1991.
Smolensky N.I. Theory and methodology history M., 2007.
Salishchev K.A. cartography. M., 1990.
Topic 10. Computer models of historical data (6 hours)
Text information processing technologies. Numerical data processing technologies. Database technologies. Image processing technologies. Geoinformation technologies. multimedia technologies. Expert systems.
Literature
Baranov V.A., Votintsev A.A. Gnutikov R.M. Specialized text editor "Ianuscript" of the system for processing ancient manuscripts // Historian and computer. 2-3. No. 31. pp.159-165.
Vladimirov V.N. historical geoinformatics: geoinformation systems in historical research. Barnaul, 2005.
Garskova I.M. Geoinformation bases and historical research. M., 1994.
Historical informatics. M., 1998.
Circle of ideas: electronic resources of historical informatics. M. 2003.
Mazur L.N. Methods historical research. Yekaterinburg, 2010.
Malkov S.Yu. History and Synergetics: Mathematical Modeling of Social Self-Organization // Circle of Ideas: Algorithms and Technologies of Historical Informatics. M.-Barnaul, 2005. S..41-73.
Morozov V.P., Tikhomirov V.P., Khrustalev E.Yu. Hypertexts in economics: information technology modeling. M., 1997.
Fundamentals of geoinformatics. M., 2004.
Topic 11. Mathematical methods for the analysis of historical sources (4 hours)
Statistics and historical science. Statistical indicators and their types. Absolute and relative values. Average values. Variation indicators. Analysis of the dynamics of historical processes. Method of correlation analysis. Multidimensional statistics.
Literature
Abramov V.K. Correlation analysis in historical research. Saransk, 1990. Loginov M.I. Essay on the history of statistics. Yekaterinburg, 1997.
Mazur L.N. Methods of historical research. Yekaterinburg, 2010.
General theory of statistics. Any edition.
Mironov B.N. history in numbers. Mathematics in historical research. M., 1991.
Topic 12. Modeling of historical phenomena and processes (2 hours)
The concept of a model. Objectives of modeling. Forms of modeling: material and symbolic models. Types of models in historical research: structural-measuring, simulation, multidimensional typology. Cognitive possibilities of the modeling method.
Literature
Borishpolets K.P. Methods of political research. Tutorial. M., 2005.
Borodkin L.I. Multivariate statistical analysis in historical research. M., 1986.
Bibikov S.N. Some aspects of paleoeconomic modeling of the Paleolithic // Soviet archeology. No. 4. 1964.
Bunyatyan E.P. Methods of social reconstructions in archeology. Kyiv, 1985.
Are mathematical models of history possible? // Social sciences and modernity. - 2004. - No. 3. - 111-122.
Huseynova A.S. Experience in simulation modeling of the historical process. M., 1984.
Karakozova E.V. Modeling in social sciences. M., 1986.
Kovalchenko I.D. On modeling historical phenomena and processes // Questions of history. No. 8. 1978.
Kovalchenko I.D. Methods of historical research. M., 1987; 2003.
Lavrinenko V.N., Pushilova L.M. study of socio-historical and political processes. Tutorial. M., 2007.
Lukov V.B., Kuzishchin V.I. Experience of simulation modeling of the historical and social process // Questions of history. No. 1. 1976.
Methods of sociological research. Tutorial. / Under the editorship of Dobrenkov V.I., Kravchenko A.I. M., 2006.
Masson V.M. Method of paleoeconomic analysis in archeology // Brief messages Institute of Archeology. Issue 127. M., 1971.
Mathematical models of historical processes. M. 1996.
Problem situations in archeology. Kyiv, 1988.
Problems of mathematical history: foundations, information resources, data analysis. M, 2009. Yusupov R.M., Ivanov V.P. Mathematical Modeling in Military Affairs // Military History Journal. No. 9. 1986.
nans, personnel policy, theological schools, foreign and internal church contacts, the content of sermons, the agenda of the Synod meetings and its decisions, church literature, after passing the censorship of the Council, was printed in state printing houses). The hierarchy became part of the nomenclature (with residences, rations, cars, dachas, sanatoriums, medical care and orders) (for this, see vol. 2, p. 304, note 1). But, as before, the state in relations with the Church was represented by state security agencies. Only the former head of the 5th department of the 2nd Directorate of the NKGB for the fight against church-sectarian counter-revolution, Colonel of State Security Karpov, was given a "different task." Leadership positions in the Council and most of the positions of its authorized representatives in the field in Stalin period occupied by current and former "chekists". However, under their supervision during the Stalin period were all the organizations of the country, including the Communist Party. The practice of control over the Church by the MGB, and then the KGB, continued until the end of the existence of the USSR.
Having decided to include the Church in the Soviet political system, Stalin took care of creating a system for training the clergy loyal to the Soviet regime (8 seminaries and 2 academies with 1,200 students in 1958) and controlling its hierarchical advancement. It was the Council that determined the number, norms and criteria for the selection of candidates.
dates entering the theological schools. With the Council, the patriarch “coordinated” all personnel transfers and appointments in the Church. A significant part of the letters and notes to them are devoted to this, indicating that this control was gradually tightened.
The new church course was not a personal "whim" of Stalin. Malenkov, Molotov, Voroshilov, Bulganin were in favor of its continuation after 1953. Karpov was a zealous supporter of this policy and tried to carry it out even after the change of the political leadership of the country.
The correspondence of Patriarch Alexy I with Karpov and Kuroyedov shows in detail the mechanism for turning the church leadership into one of the links in the state apparatus. But, as Orlova notes, with the creation of the Council for Religious Affairs in 1965, “materials relating to the activities of the Russian Orthodox Church began to occupy the same position in it as documents relating to other confessions on the territory of the USSR. In the memorandums of the Council for Religious Affairs to the Central Committee and to the Council of Ministers, there are practically no issues related to the Russian Orthodox Church” (vol. 2, p. 26). The reasons for such a decline in the interest of the authorities in the Church require additional research.
B.A. Filippov, Candidate of Historical Sciences (Orthodox St. Tikhon Humanitarian University)
L.N. Mazur. Methods of historical research. Yekaterinburg: UrGU, 2010. 607 p.
Modern trends in development historical knowledge are found in search of criteria and foundations for understanding the problems of the globalizing world, the new integrity of human communities in their unity and diversity. Methodological research is manifested in the substantiation of the informational nature of human activity, systemicity as an integral property of societies and the historical process as a whole, actualizes a new understanding of the phenomenon of progress and patterns in history. The substantiation of the criteria for the scientific nature of historical knowledge in the Russian historiography of modern times has found the most striking embodiment in the nomination of O.M. and A.N. Medushevsky cognitive-information theory of modern
humanitarian knowledge. Their raising the question of history as a rigorous science coincided with an intensive search for scientific methods, techniques and tools aimed at achieving sound results of historical research, which marked the development of the professional community in the last decade. One of the embodied variants of scientific and methodological developments of this kind is the book by L.N. Mazur "Methods of historical research".
It is an original version of the complex development of the problem of the historian's methodological tools. The structure of the book seems to be quite reasonable: from consideration of the essential problems of historical research, its
features, nature, method, the author proceeds to the disclosure of methods and techniques for collecting, systematizing, and then analyzing historical data, showing the relationship of these methods with qualitative features various kinds and stages of historical research. In his work, the author takes into account the achievements of domestic historical schools of source study and methodology, first of all, as it seems to us, the school of academician I.D. Kovalchenko with her characteristic special attention to the problems of extracting, processing and analyzing information from historical sources, especially mass ones.
An important place in the work of Mazur is occupied by the theory of method and the development of the problem of scientific methods in history. The author shows different approaches to its solution, evaluates the achievements of modern historiography in understanding the essence historical methods, their types and systems, classifications of the totality of scientific methods used in historical research. It was not accidental that the author singled out a special classification of methods, determined on the basis of a distinction between information tasks implemented in his work by a historian, and research practices corresponding to these tasks. This classification, which includes methods for collecting and registering information, methods for its systematization and ordering, as well as methods for analysis and synthesis, largely determines the structure, logic and value of the book. The author considers the totality of these methods to be a method of historical research (p. 60).
Mazur's contribution to solving this problem is the substantiation of the idea of a basic method, determined by the specifics of the subject and purpose of the study, which determines the approaches and tools at all its stages, as well as provisions on additional methods aimed at the implementation of specific scientific tasks of labor. In the interpretation of the “basic method” by the author, in my opinion, a broad interpretation of the method as a methodology, a general approach to research, the way it is carried out, a set of not only rules and procedures, but also the ways and principles that define them for solving the problem posed, emerges. In this case, it seems to me, one can see the influence of the tradition laid down by Kovalchenko, who emphasized that “the scientific method is a theoretically substantiated normative cognitive tool”2.
Assessing the classifications of the main (traditional) methods of historical research available in the scientific literature, Mazur supplements and refines their composition, substantiates
specifics, expediency and scope (pp. 387-486). These methods include historical-systemic, historical-typological, classification, historical-dynamic, historical-comparative (comparative), historical-genetic types of analysis. In each case, the author focuses on the methodological aspects of their application, the types of research for which they are adequate, and gives examples of their correct and incorrect use.
Considering the logic of historical research, defined as a system of theoretical and empirical procedures aimed at obtaining new knowledge, the author identifies its common and variable elements, the nature of possible implementations. Mazur singles out theoretical and concrete historical studies, analytical and descriptive works, drawing attention to the expediency of combining the analytical and descriptive research plan as the most optimal variant of historical work. It seems that the division into theoretical and descriptive works is still somewhat artificial. There can be no purely theoretical historical research in principle, since history is an empirical science, the subject of historical research has its own source base, and the conclusions of each work must be based on this empirical basis, always limited by certain spatial and chronological boundaries. Another thing is the use by historians of the results of other studies, including in related sciences, which make it possible to look at their subject from a different perspective. new point vision and, by applying the research "focus" set by a different theoretical horizon, interdisciplinary concepts and methods, to see the hidden possibilities of sources and their interpretation, to deepen the theoretical understanding of the problem. Longer-term trends, tendencies and features of historical processes can be identified in the course of collective research, writing collective monographs, historiographic works, as part of the implementation of scientific projects that provide opportunities for broader generalizations.
Along with the distinction between analytical (theoretical) and descriptive (empirical) studies, Mazur singles out continuous and non-continuous studies. The most important thing in this section of the book is to consider and substantiate the idea that each type of research, having an independent value, is associated with the use of different techniques and methods of organization and
giving material. If a continuous study is aimed at studying any mass historical object or process and its generalized assessment, is associated with an analysis of the summary characteristics of the object of study, then a non-continuous one is built on the study of some part of a mass historical object. The author substantiates the varieties of non-continuous studies: monographic, the study of elite groups, selective, showing the specifics of methods for selecting a part of a mass object and the associated features of the methodology and methodology of these studies. The importance of studying the individual and unique in history, notes Mazur, underlies many scientific areas - historical anthropology, microhistory, local history, biography, and so on.
The book adequately reflects the methodologically complex problem of the specifics of historical knowledge in comparison with natural science and other types of socio-humanitarian knowledge. Mazur rightly associates it with the incompleteness of historical information, the subjectivity of
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In a broad sense, modeling can be viewed as a completely standard procedure. scientific research. It is implemented, in particular, in theoretical constructions, since the creation of a theory, as well as modeling, is based on the methods of abstracting and formalizing the object under study. Moreover, each science uses its own coding tools that have become familiar - this can be a verbal or mathematical description, mapping or creating layouts. In any science, model structures are used to represent reality, which only to a certain extent reflect its features.
stand out the following types models:
The physical model represents the object of study, taking into account its external characteristics, parameters, and reproduces the physical external properties. This model is designed for visual perception and helps historians solve issues related to the reconstruction of living conditions, clothing, appearance of historical figures or ordinary people. Physical modeling is widely used in archeology, anthropology, and ethnography. Thus, the works of M. M. Gerasimov, associated with the reconstruction of the appearance of ancient man, as well as many historical figures - Ivan the Terrible, Ulugbek, Tamerlane, etc. The creation of models of this type is widely used in museum practice;
The analog model represents the object of interest with the help of an analog that behaves like a real object, but does not look like one. The analog model assumes a higher level of abstraction, reflecting the most significant features and properties of the object. It can be a map, diagram, or graph that visualizes the spatial structure, structure, or processes of the phenomenon under study.
As an example of analog modeling, we can cite the graphical model of the “basic equilibrium” of A. V. Chayanov (Fig. 12.5), who, exploring the patterns of functioning of the peasant economy, suggested that “every labor economy has a natural limit of its production, which is determined by the proportionality strain of annual labor with the degree of satisfaction of the needs of the economic family”29.
Rice. 12.5. Cost-to-marginal utility model
He proved that the level of satisfaction of family needs is the main regulator of the economic activity of the family, and reflected this dependence in the form of a graph. On fig. 12.5 curve AB shows the severity of the acquisition of the marginal ruble. The higher it is, the harder it is for each extra ruble earned by the worker. The CD curve shows the marginal utility of these rubles. The principle of marginal utility is commented on by A.V. Chayanov as follows: “The subjective assessment of the 20th, 30th ruble will be high, but with each subsequent increase in the total amount of annual income, the subjective value of the marginal ruble will fall, since they will satisfy less important in the eyes of family needs"30. The graphs of functions intersect at a single point X - this is the equilibrium point of the work 29 Chayanov AV Peasant economy. M., 1989. S. 244.
farm, which corresponds to 67 rubles. In it, the subjective valuation of the ruble obtained by marginal labor is equal to the subjective valuation of its heaviness. Any next ruble will be valued lower in terms of its marginal utility than the difficulty of obtaining it. Such a graphical model gives researchers an understanding of the internal motivational mechanisms that affect work;
A mathematical model uses mathematical symbols to describe the properties and characteristics of an object or event.
Mathematical modeling is a rather complex procedure, which is still used in historical research to a limited extent. There are several reasons for this. First of all, historical processes and phenomena are quite complex for building models due to their multidimensionality and multifactorial nature. Any model essentially represents the object or process under study in a somewhat simplified form, i.e., involves the formalization of the entire variety of historical information and its reduction to several basic categories and characteristics that form the basis of the model. In this case, it is fundamentally important to substantiate the reliability of these categories, as far as they correspond to the modeling tasks. Besides, existing methods and technologies do not always allow adequately reflecting the specifics of a historical object. When conducting such studies, the problem of the correctness of the use of modeling methods always arises.
The applicability of the methods, in turn, is determined by the object of study and its informational aspects. Moreover, the informational prerequisites for modeling should be singled out especially, since the construction of a historical model requires sufficient, from the point of view of modeling, and reliable primary information. The creation of such an array is associated with the systematization, formalization of information from mass sources.
Thus, to carry out mathematical modeling of a historical object or process, it is necessary to have three main prerequisites:
1) an object of study whose behavior can be described using mathematical models;
2) correct modeling methods;
3) the corresponding information array.
The most popular modeling methods in historical science are:
1) methods of probability theory, which are used to study mass phenomena and processes;
2) simulation methods that allow you to reproduce real phenomena and determine the results of various actions;
3) programming methods with which you can find optimal solution for complex tasks.
When carrying out simulation, the problem of its "economic efficiency" arises. This costly tool should only be used when traditional solutions to a problem fail. It is justified if it allows new information missing in the initial set of initial data or the problem is formulated in such a way that it cannot be solved without an experiment. In particular, the study of alternative history is possible only at the level of simulation.
The language used to describe the model is very important. Of course, the historian is not required to know all the procedures for processing information; he may not understand the mathematical side of the model. This requires special training. The combination of the competencies of a historian and a mathematician in one person is a rather rare phenomenon. Therefore, the implementation of scientific projects related to modeling is carried out most often by research teams, including historians and mathematicians. Nevertheless, a modern historian must have an idea of the possibilities and tasks of using one or another modeling method. This is necessary to perform the task manager function. Modeling most clearly reflects one of the main trends in science - the need for integration and cooperation of sciences both at the theoretical and instrumental levels.
In history, there are several approaches to modeling historical phenomena and processes:
Based on mass sources and the theoretical ideas about the object under study that have developed in science, a quantitative model is created that more deeply reveals the structure, functional connections, stages and stages of the development of a historical phenomenon;
The model is used to study those phenomena and processes, the qualitative characterization of which is difficult and does not have clear criteria. Modeling in this case makes it possible to clarify their properties and parameters.
Building a model includes the following steps:
1) setting a task. At this stage, it is important to determine the essence of the problem and the object of modeling;
2) building a model. The stage is associated with the definition of the purpose of modeling, the collection and formalization of the initial data. Taking into account these factors, the choice and justification of the type of model that best suits the tasks to be solved is carried out;
3) verification of reliability. It is important to prove how the model corresponds to the real historical object, whether all essential elements and connections are built into it. Another aspect of model validation is related to the extent to which the information obtained with its help helps the researcher solve the problem;
4) in terpretation of the model. After validation, the model is ready for use and interpretation. The result obtained needs careful, correct reading and decoding. This task is complicated by the fact that modeling is characterized by a high level of abstraction. Correlation of simulation results with specific historical phenomena, as a rule, faces the problems of incomplete analogies and random deviations. Difficulties in interpretation and a significant proportion of assumptions and subjective interpretations - all this creates an atmosphere of distrust in the results. mathematical modeling among professional historians. The use of simulation as a method of verification violates the cornerstone principle of historical research: the confirmation of a conclusion by a fact.
And although the model belongs to a variety of facts, it nevertheless does not coincide with the concept of historical fact and therefore does not look convincing to many.
There are several approaches to classifying types of historical models. So, for example, mathematical q Chernavsky proposed the division of models - historical models into two types, taking into account the description of the phenomenon under study at the historical level: imitation science and basic ones. Basic models contain a minimum number of parameters, do not pretend to a detailed description of the phenomenon, and provide a qualitative picture of the behavior of the system as a whole. They help to understand the basic mechanisms of the process being studied. Simulation models include many parameters and variables, claiming to be a detailed description of specific objects and phenomena31.
K. V. Khvostova gave her own classification of mathematical historical models, subdividing them into specific historical and global ones. This division is built taking into account the methodological approaches that are implemented in the course of modeling and the information base used. Concrete historical models formalize real historical processes and phenomena reflected in sources at the level of atomic facts.
The task of such a model is to understand the complex mechanism of causal relationships that ensure the development of specific historical objects in a situational context. Global models are not based on facts, but on a certain system of theoretical ideas about a historical object or process, which are considered as initial postulates and allow the formation of models of a high level of generalization, covering historical phenomena that are significant in terms of time and geographical characteristics32. Global models are more prone to incorrect constructions and interpretations due to the high level of abstraction, formalization, and simplification of historical information.
3 Mityukov N. V. On the typology of mathematical models of military-historical processes // History and Mathematics. Analysis and modeling of socio-historical processes. M., 2007. S. 122.
32 Khvostova K. V. Mathematical methods in historical research and modern epistemology of history // New and recent history. 2007. № 3.
Based on the existing experience of classifications, taking into account the tasks to be solved, it is possible to expand and refine the classification scheme, highlighting the following types of historical models: specific historical, imitation, counterfactual. The latter variety is often considered as a variant of the simulation model.
Specifically, historical models that characterize real historical objects or processes are used quite widely and are most recognized by historians. The creation of specific historical situational models, according to the definition of K. V. Khvostova, makes it possible to represent historical objects and processes most correctly and with the highest degree of reliability. A feature of such models is that they are based on historical facts (primary information) contained in mass historical sources, which can be considered as some kind of analogue of an "axiom" in the system of evidence.
An example of a specific historical model is the study by K. V. Khvostova, based on the principle of situationality.
In particular, her study of the processes of differentiation of the medieval peasantry is based on the development of a nonlinear model, which was based on stratification coefficients that take into account the dependence of several parameters:
the size of the land allotment; the degree of poverty (wealth) at a certain point in time. The calculation was carried out on the basis of data from land-tax inventories of individual peasant settlements, which reflected local-temporal variations in the development of the stratification process. The model was tested taking into account sources of a normative nature that were not involved in the simulation.
As a starting point for constructing the model, we used the assertion that for a medieval community, the predominance of a layer of peasants of average prosperity - the holders of a "normal" allotment - was typical. For some time, some representatives of the middle stratum lost part of their allotment or acquired a certain amount of land, i.e. became poorer or richer. However, this process cannot be assessed linearly, as the concentration of land among some peasants at the expense of the impoverishment of others. Impoverishment was most often associated with the transfer of land to representatives of the ruling class, or the land was abandoned and left without cultivation. Enrichment occurred as a result of the purchase of land, but not necessarily from other peasants, perhaps by involving vacant land in circulation or for other reasons. The model reflects the following relationship: “The impoverishment of each peasant at a given moment of time is directly proportional to the loss of land of a certain size and the degree of his poverty at that moment in time. Enrichment is directly proportional to the size of the acquired land at a fixed point in time and inversely proportional to the degree of wealth at the same moment. This means that the acquisition of land of a certain size is more significant for a less wealthy owner compared to the significance that the same increase in land would have in the economy of a richer peasant.
Thus, the above model, described both verbally and mathematically (differential equations), was based on information from sources acting as initial axioms. And this required condition to implement the principle of historicism, which is often forgotten in mathematical modeling.
Simulation modeling, in contrast to concrete historical modeling, implements a different methodological approach (deductive). It repels not so much historical facts how much from those theoretical abstract ideas that researchers take for granted and consider as initial basic axioms. This concerns, first of all, simulation models that claim to be a global level of reflection of historical processes. They are currently being actively developed within the framework of applied mathematics and claim to be a new "analytical" understanding of history34.
33 Khvostova KV Mathematical methods in historical research and modern epistemology of history. S. 69.
34 We are talking about the formation of such a direction as "cliodinamics", associated with the development of models of historical macroprocesses, including demographic, political, economic, etc. See: History and Mathematics:
macrohistorical dynamics of society and the state. M., 2007; History and mathematics: problems of periodization of historical macroprocesses. M., 2006; and etc.
The danger of this approach lies in the fact that, with the external similarity of historical discourse, research loses any historical meaning and significance, since it is not the model that is used to understand historical processes, but, on the contrary, historical information is used to test the performance of mathematical models, which affects the principles of information selection and its use. Such models, as a rule, are not perceived by professional historians, but are very attractive to the uninitiated.
It is possible to distinguish a number characteristic features, characteristic of "pseudo-historical" works based on global modeling:
The source base of research has not been disclosed and has been replaced by a conditional information base, the formation technologies of which are usually not disclosed and do not correspond to the basic principles of working with historical sources (complexity, criticality, correct interpretation);
The selection of historical information and facts to test models is illustrative, targeted and affects the formalized simplified reflection of the historical process;
The use of “one’s own” scientific language based on the widespread use of mathematical terms and concepts, the free interpretation of historical categories, the introduction of one’s own concepts that have a very abstract, albeit structured content. As a result, the semantic code of the model turns out to be alien to historians and creates semantic barriers to perception.
Unfortunately, such "pseudo-historical studies"
discredit the idea of mathematical modeling and slow down the processes of mathematization historical science. It should also be noted the high cost and low efficiency of global simulation modeling, since most often “discovered” are truths long known to historians.
In addition to global simulation models in historical science, there is more successful experience in the use of simulation models, which is associated with specific historical objects and source complexes.
They are used to solve the following tasks:
1) reconstruction of historical reality in order to fill in the existing information gaps, as well as for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms and patterns of historical development;
2) carrying out numerical experiments to identify possible alternatives of historical development.
One of the most famous experiments in simulation modeling was an attempt to reproduce, on the basis of preserved data, the demographic and economic aspects of the life of Attic society in the 8th-6th centuries. BC e. Researchers (A. S. Guseynova, Yu. N. Pavlovskaya and V. A. Ustinov) set the task of developing a model of the economic dynamics of ancient Greek city-states that describes the processes of production, distribution, exchange and consumption of material goods, as well as the influence on these processes. war, and tried to interpret this model in relation to the period of the Peloponnesian War of 431-404. BC e.35 The creation of a socio-economic model of the ancient Greek cities and the conduct of simulation experiments made it possible to recreate in dynamics the functioning of the main Greek cities during the Peloponnesian War. The areas of cultivated land in the policies, as well as the areas under the main agricultural crops, the population of each policy by category, the yield in each policy, the average prices for basic commodities, production volumes, the volume and composition of exports and imports, were calculated, incomes and spending by each segment of the population. The model made it possible to obtain numerical data for Corinth and Syracuse, although there is practically no information on them in historical sources.
Many eminent scientists dealt with questions of mathematical modeling - ID Koval'chenko, J1. I. Borodkin. For many years, the Department of Historical Informatics of Moscow State University has been conducting research in the field of creating non-linear models of the historical process. M., 1984. S. 17.
processes, the study of unstable, chaotic states.
Based on the synergetic approach, models of the strike movement in prerevolutionary Russia (A. Yu. Andreev, J1. I. Borodkin, M. I. Levandovsky), models of interaction between the branches of power (L. - take a fresh look at the mechanisms of development of political processes and the possibilities of their regulation.
Historical simulation models, no doubt, are of considerable interest and are an effective tool for cognition, since they take into account the specifics of historical research to a greater extent.
A variety of simulation modeling are counterfactual models. Their use is associated with the development of such a direction as alternative history, allowing a deeper understanding of the mechanisms of interaction between the natural and the random in the historical space.
One of the earliest attempts at counterfactual modeling is Railroads and Economic Growth (1964) by Robert Vogel, which examines the possible development of nineteenth-century America. with absence railways. The author disputes the assertion that the construction of railways was the main and decisive stimulus for the development of all sectors of the country's economy and proves that water and horse-drawn transportation could become the main means of communication. In Russian historiography, as an example of counterfactual modeling, one can consider the study of Yu. P. Bokarev, who proposed a model of a moneyless economy in the 1920s. in conditions of natural exchange between the city and the countryside. He disputes the view that the policy of war communism was introduced as a temporary measure, economically unjustified and without practical success37.
36 See, for example: Andreev A. Yu., Borodkin L. I. Nonlinear model of the strike movement: analysis of self organization // Krug idei: electronic resources and historical informatics. M.; Barnaul, 2003, pp. 434-490.
37 Bokarev Yu. P. Socialist industry and small peasant economy in the USSR in the 20s: sources, research methods, stages of relationships. M., 1989.
Historical modeling finds more and more supporters not only among "natural scientists" and mathematicians, but also among historians.
The success of historical modeling does not remove the methodological problems that are inextricably linked with the use of such complex tools. Discussions about the peculiarities of historical knowledge and the possibilities of using a strict mathematical apparatus for these purposes are being developed again.
The lack of developed modeling procedures adapted to the specifics of the object of study of history and the information environment on which they are based often leads to obvious simplifications and incorrect interpretation of historical processes that cause the historical community to reject new methods. This is especially true for models classified, in the words of K. V. Khvostova, as “global”, divorced from a specific source and, ultimately, from history.
The lack of development of the methodological basis of historical modeling is a reflection of the fact that these approaches have become a tool for the study of historical reality relatively recently and, to a certain extent, are in conflict with the established tools and principles for the study of historical science. To overcome this contradiction, a dialogue is needed based on the interaction and cooperation of historians and mathematicians.
CONTROL QUESTIONS AND TASKS
1. Highlight the main content and patterns of mathematization of historical science.
2. What stages of mathematization of domestic science can you indicate? What are their features?
3. Specify the main methodological principles for the use of quantitative indicators in historical research.
4. What is a statistical indicator, a statistical sign?
5. Name the main classifications of statistical indicators.
6. What is an absolute indicator?
7. What varieties absolute values you know? What tasks do these quantities perform?
8. Name the main forms and types of relative indicators.
What analysis capabilities do they provide?
9. What is a typical average?
10. What types of averages do you know?
11. What tasks are solved using averages?
12. For what purposes in historical research are indicators of variation necessary?
13. Consider the main stages of dynamic analysis.
14. What tasks are solved with the help of dynamics indicators?
15. Why is it customary to talk about a system of indicators of dynamics? What elements does it consist of?
16. What does the concept of "trend" mean and what methods of identifying a trend can you name?
17. Expand the content of the correlation method.
18. Why are several correlation coefficients developed in statistics? What is the difference?
19. For consideration of what questions are the methods of multivariate statistics used in history?
20. What methods of multivariate statistics are you interested in and why?
21. Define a historical pattern.
CONCLUSION
Historical science, the object of study of which is society in the past, has its own specific features and characteristics that distinguish it from natural science disciplines. These include:The incompleteness of the preserved information about the past;
Subjectivity associated with the personal aspect of the study;
The presence of goal-setting historical search associated with the selection of material, the formulation of research tasks, which is often reflected in the completeness of the picture of the study, its substantive aspects;
The complexity of verifying historical knowledge;
The remoteness of events, which makes it difficult to understand and adequately interpret the surviving sources;
The predominance of descriptive forms and methods of presenting historical knowledge;
Chronological and event approach to the study of history.
All these features directly affect methodological tools, which, on the one hand, are aimed at objectifying and increasing the reliability of historical ideas and knowledge, and on the other hand, at filling in the missing information.
The lack of opportunities for experimental or experimental verification of the acquired knowledge forces a more rigorous approach to the procedures for collecting information, interpreting it, constructing and proving hypotheses. Big role in solving these problems, the mathematization of scientific knowledge plays. Development and implementation statistical methods in various branches of science, including history, some scientists call it a revolution, since they made it possible to expand the existing ideas about causal dependencies in the world around us, its diversity and variability.
As historical science develops, its methodological arsenal expands and becomes more complex, primarily due to the inclusion of methods from related sciences. The integration of social sciences in theoretical and methodological terms is the most obvious process that changes historical science, forming new directions, branches of historical knowledge, making new demands on the subject of knowledge - the historian. First of all, he touched upon foreign historical science. AT domestic science A noticeable breakthrough in the field of methods of historical research occurred in the 1990s, when Russian historians began to actively master those methodological and methodological tools that had already undergone a serious and long-term approbation in foreign historical science. This also applies to the technologies of oral history and the implementation of the principles of the anthropological approach to the study of historical practices. Inclusion of Russian historical science in the international science community(not only in organizational terms, but also at the individual level) influenced the change in ideas about the professional qualities and skills of a historian.
Methods of quantitative analysis, sampling, sociological tools, and computer technologies have taken their place in modern historical science. Mastering these methods is not an easy problem, it is closely related to research practice and requires not only the mastering of basic techniques, but also the creative adaptation of these methods to specific tasks, taking into account the individual abilities of the scientist, his ideas about the necessary and sufficient methodological tools.
However, in order for the choice of a historian to be meaningful and effective, it must be based on knowledge of the methods that are used in modern historical science, an understanding of their capabilities and limitations.
Another regularity of scientific creativity is connected with the deepening of the division of labor, when the results of the research activities of some groups of people (experimenters, theoreticians, methodologists) become the starting point for the cognitive activities of others. In historical science, as in other areas of scientific research, there is a specialization and professionalization of research work. Scientists solve different problems, they have different skills, interests, criteria and assessments. Often this leads to mutual misunderstanding and disagreement. As a result, the coordination of empirical and theoretical problems in modern science becomes one of the most urgent problems. If in natural and technical sciences Since such a division of labor has long become commonplace, the humanities are still dominated by the notion of a scientist as a “universal” researcher who is equally proficient in working with historical sources and facts, has a conceptual mindset and applies methodological design. .
This is a utopia! Each researcher, due to his individual qualities, is inclined to one or another type of research practice. And this specialization wittingly or involuntarily manifests itself in historical works. In one case, a significant result of the study may be associated with obtaining new facts, creating a more complete and detailed picture of the past on the basis of jewelry work with historical sources.
In a different - forte the scientist manifests itself in the development of theoretical aspects of historical phenomena, the analysis of its internal patterns. In the third, the possibilities of new research methods are revealed in relation to historical problems. Being a generalist in the modern scientific environment is very difficult and accessible to units, although one should strive for this.
Summing up the characterization of the theoretical and methodological aspects of the study, it should be emphasized that in order to conduct a full-fledged historical work, the following conditions must be observed:
There should be a clear understanding of the specifics of the object and subject of research, the study of which, as a rule, is carried out at the intersection of sciences. Any historical problem is interdisciplinary by default. Without the development and systematization of the whole complex of methodological developments in this matter, it is impossible to give an adequate assessment of the historical processes under study;
Creation of a source base corresponding to the objectives of the study, which makes it possible to comprehensively analyze the object and subject of the study. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to have the skills of searching, systematizing, analyzing historical sources. A complex approach to the formation of a source base allows us to set and solve research tasks of a new level: not only to reconstruct and describe a historical phenomenon, but also to give its qualitative assessment based on the involvement of the whole variety of evidence and data;
The objectives of the study and the features of the source base directly affect the methodological methods of analysis.
The methodological base of the study should be comprehensive, it should be balanced in how traditional methods historical research, as well as formal techniques focused on building models of the phenomenon under study.
The use of quantitative methods is not only justified, but also necessary; without them, it is impossible to systematize and generalize the primary concrete historical material.
For successful scientific activity Today, one cannot lock oneself in the circle of familiar and habitual practices. Curiosity and the desire to master new techniques and technologies, in the long run, can push the boundaries of what is possible and get new scientific results. Although there is another danger - to fall into fruitless experimentation. "Est modus in rebus" - the main thing is to find your own measure and place in historical science. Good luck...
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