EntranceCreating rush demand for products. Excessive demand
Because of Ukraine. As explained in the message of the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the Ministry of Finance, the department took this step to protest against the “occupation of Crimea by Russia.” Thus, the expanded list of individuals and organizations subject to sanctions by the US Treasury Department due to Russia’s policy towards Ukraine now includes 21 individuals and about 20 organizations, including Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Andrei Tcherezov, Director of the Department of Operational Control and Energy of the same department Evgeniy Grabchak, General Director of the Technopromexport company (a subsidiary of Rostec) Sergei Topor-Gilka, the Power Machines company of the oligarch Alexei Mordashov...
All of them will join the list of citizens of special categories (Special Designated Nationals, SDN), with whom American businesses are now prohibited from entering into any business (financial) relations.
The January 26 sanctions not only underscored the US intention not to back down in political pressure on Russia - they added to the nervousness Russian elite, which is in anxious anticipation: on January 29, the US administration, in pursuance of the law (CAATSA), must transfer to Congress the so-called US Treasury with a detailed list of businessmen and officials included in Putin’s “inner circle”. Personal sanctions may be imposed against all persons on this list.
On the verge of panic
When on March 16, 2014, the United States introduced the very first personal sanctions in response to the annexation of Crimea (there were only 11 names on the list), this became an occasion for exercises in wit for the victims. For example, Russian Presidential Aide Vladislav Surkov proudly stated that he considers the award a “political Oscar.” “So it came to me - real world recognition!” - Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin clownishly rejoiced. There were also foolish people: not finding themselves on the list, they demanded that Obama write them down too. The sanctions list has become something of a VIP card in a fashionable exclusive club.
But now, four years later, the mood is completely different. Russian oligarchs are anxiously awaiting the appearance of the “Kremlin report”, which they expect will include them all. Judging by numerous publications, the mood of potential defendants is close to panic. The Washington lobbyists they hire are digging deep into the ground, but can't find a way to divert the threat from their clients.
Paradoxically, it was precisely this fuss over the “Kremlin report” that greatly raised the stakes. When President Trump signed CAATSA into law in August 2017, no one in Washington paid any attention to its reporting provision. How many reports are written at the request of Congress! “The expectation was that the list would be shelved and forgotten immediately after publication, as is often the case with such reports,” writes The New York Times. Lawyers insisted that there was no reason to be nervous: the list is not sanctioned and does not entail any automatic punishment.
But how can you not be nervous? After all, it is clear that the list is a preparation for a new round of sanctions. People are included in the list for their closeness to Putin, and without closeness to Putin there is no big business in Russia. And it remains to be seen what nasty things they will write about you there and how to then get you removed from the list: unlike the sanctions list, from which the president has the right to remove any name or designation, there is no procedure for exclusion from this.
The peculiarity of the “Kremlin report” is that it creates uncertainty. Adam Smith, a Washington lawyer and former sanctions adviser to the US Treasury, says in interview The New York Times: “It's one thing to tell banks that so-and-so is sanctioned. It's quite another to say, “This guy is on the list. Think for yourself what to do with it."
"Toxic" partners
As for the preparation - fair. Many did not read to the end Article 241 of the CAATSA law, which requires the administration to report on the oligarchs, their families, business activity and the size of the fortunes. At the very end of this article it is said that the authors of the report must calculate the possible effect of introducing sanctions both for those on the list and for the Russian economy as a whole, as well as for the economy of the United States and its allies.
In addition, experts believe that a formal sanctions regime may not be required in some cases: investors will avoid “toxic” partners simply out of caution.
The peculiarity of the “Kremlin report” is that it creates uncertainty. Adam Smith, a Washington lawyer and former US Treasury sanctions adviser, tells The New York Times: “It’s one thing to tell banks that so-and-so is sanctioned. It's quite another to say, “This guy is on the list. Think for yourself what to do about it.”
On January 17, exercising their right to nominate candidates for the list, four Republican senators - Roger Wicker, Marco Rubio, Cory Gardner and Lindsey Graham - sent letters of identical content to the officials responsible for compiling the list: Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Director of National Intelligence John Coates. In this message, the senators call for two names to be included in the list: Yuri Chaika and Alisher Usmanov. Each name is accompanied by a certificate compiled on the basis of materials from the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) of Alexei Navalny and the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ).
With their proposal, legislators make it clear what they expect from the report and what level of persons should be on the list.
Well, there's only a little time left to wait...
* Vladimir Abarinov, Washington journalist, regular contributor NT
Demand curve shows how much of a good consumers would purchase at different price levels. This situation can be expressed as law of demand : The greater the quantity of a good that needs to be sold, the lower the price should be assigned to it, or, in other words, the quantity demanded increases when the price decreases and decreases when the price of the good increases.
Demand curve
C 
1 2 Vproduct (demand volume) - (number of sales)
The “price-quality indicator” effect. In fact, the “Price - Quality” relationship is not unambiguous. There can be high quality at a low price and low quality at a high price. This is a “psychological” effect and is used by many companies.
Prestige demand effect (“Veblen effect” ”: means the purchase of goods of a special kind at special prestigious prices. Prestigious price is the price for very high quality products that have some special unsurpassed properties or features; this is the price of unique goods. The prestigious category most often includes expensive goods and products from well-known companies.
The effect of expected price dynamics (hot demand) - this is additional demand above the standard level, caused by the expectation of a significant change in the price of a product and its disappearance from sale. Over time, the hype may fade and everything will return to the original curve. This effect also works in the opposite direction: if the consumer knows that the price of a product will decrease, then he will hold back his demand. In this case, rush demand will take a negative value.
Equilibrium market price- and on a competitive market, at which the quantity goods And services who want to buy consumers, absolutely corresponds to the quantity of goods and services that producers wish to offer (the price at which supply and demand are equal; at which there is neither a shortage nor an excess of goods and services; does not show a tendency to increase or decrease).
8. The influence of the state on the equilibrium market price. Consequence of a shortage of goods.
Fixing prices and setting taxes.
Constant shortage of goods may, under certain conditions, develop into a crisis of underproduction. The market reacts to commodity shortages with direct or hidden price increases. At the same time, speculation is increasing - buying up missing things at lower prices and reselling them at higher prices for profit. A way out of the critical situation may be a slight decrease in the growth of monetary incomes of the population, an increase in the production of goods in demand, or an increase in market prices for these products.
Commodity shortage - this is the quantity of goods that buyers cannot buy at the current price on the market price. A shortage indicates a mismatch between supply and demand and the absence of a balancing price. At market pricing There cannot be a commodity shortage, because When demand increases, prices rise to the point where demand decreases and becomes equal to supply.
628 Supply and demand 34, 62, 72, 77, 87, 100, 107,
A company - like a person - must have an internal communications mechanism, or nervous system, to coordinate its actions. All businesses are based on several elements: customers, products and services, income, expenses, competitors, delivery of products or services to consumers, and, finally, company personnel. The company must execute and coordinate business processes in each of these areas, which is especially important for activities that span multiple divisions. Before guaranteeing delivery of a large order to a customer, the sales team must be able to quickly determine whether the company has enough inventory or can obtain it quickly. To quickly realign production priorities, manufacturing departments need to know which products are driving demand. Business managers at all levels of the company need to be aware of both of these processes, and more.
By general rule, an increase in prices slows down the circulation of goods, a decrease in prices speeds it up. Periods of rush demand, when, despite rising prices, demand grows and absorbs any supply of goods (as was the case after the crisis of August 17, 1998), are exceptional. They are generated not only by economic, but also by political reasons.
Waiting for the rush of demand Pushing aside competitors
This reflects the results of an overzealous advertising campaign carried out by the manufacturer, possibly even using false arguments. As a result, rush demand arises. Its absolute value is defined as the difference between these two values
It is quite clear that the more attractive the combination of price and technical and economic indicators of replacement products looks, the more problematic it becomes to squeeze out the maximum industry average profit. Today, US sugar producers are learning this truth as they face the large-scale penetration of high fructose corn syrup into the commercial market. Substitutes not only limit profits during periods of normal business activity, but also cut into the high profits that the industry could receive during periods of economic boom and excessive demand.
The third phase is characterized by record corporate earnings and the highest economic performance. The general public, having by this time forgotten about past losses, again feels quite confident in the market and is convinced that it will reach unprecedented heights. Now she is buying everything, creating a rush of demand. It is during this period that that same group of investors - active buyers at the initial stage of the rise - begins to liquidate positions, expecting a market reversal.
Like a rocket that needs a push to overcome gravity and enter orbit, prices continued to move in the same direction under the influence of the “push”; the law of “market gravity” ceased to apply for a while. Experience shows that such market situations are extreme. For example, in this case, an excessively overbought market does not at all indicate an increased risk for buying or favorable conditions for selling. On the contrary, it indicates an extremely favorable buying opportunity due to the incredibly rapid nature of price increases. The rush to buy in this situation is not associated with the formation of a price peak. As a rule, in such cases, the balance of supply and demand is so sharply disrupted by a sudden wave of demand that it takes quite a long time for the rush to dissipate. I have long noticed that various states of imbalance in markets have very similar manifestations.
And now let’s reason rationally about what can affect the company’s stock price. Well, as it seems to you, we think you will agree that the discovery of a new rich deposit by geologists of “43” will lead to a rush of demand for shares of “43” on the stock exchange. Or, for example, the construction of a pipeline connecting Chukotka and Alaska is also a positive event, as a result of which shares are likely to increase in price. And for another example, almost incredible
In order to get ahead of the inevitable, expected rise in prices, owners of hot money strive to get rid of them as quickly as possible. As a result, a rush of demand unfolds; first of all, those goods that can serve as a means of preserving savings (real estate, objects of art, precious metals) are bought up. People act under the pressure of inflationary psychosis, and this spurs price increases, and inflation begins to feed itself.
First half of the 70s. XX century brought new cataclysms to the development of the modern market economy. An oil crisis broke out, engulfing almost the entire modern capitalist world. Unlike cyclical ones, this crisis was accompanied by an unusual increase in world prices for oil and petroleum products, excessive demand for them, and a lagging supply from demand in the consumer liquid fuel market.
Methods for implementing the CP are providing a given price with a mass supply of goods, large-scale market conquest, waiting for rush demand, skimming the cream with a short-term increase in prices for new types of products.
The rush demand prices are set by the company at high level, and rush demand, being, as a rule, the result of the actions of the company itself, when it achieves a shortage of goods in the market or market expectation of a shortage, stimulates an increase in demand and then inflates prices.
In addition to the main direct losses, expressed in massive delays in client payments and a significant reduction in liquidity, the banking system suffered losses due to the forced liquidation of assets to satisfy the rush demand for cash, the rise in the dollar exchange rate during the execution of fixed-term contracts with non-residents, and the lack of income from government securities , a sharp decrease in the possibilities of using government securities as collateral, and the curtailment of credit lines from Western banks.
In Fig. Figures 5 and 6 show two main types of demand curves. In the first case (Fig. 5), the slightest increase in price causes a sharp drop in demand. The consumer is sensitive to price changes. But with rush demand, as well as in the market for essential goods (Fig. 6), even a significant increase in price causes only a slight decrease in demand.
Excessive demand, appearing due to consumer uncertainty about the future stability of the market and prices. To a large extent, the rush to demand is facilitated by the spread of rumors that prices will soon rise, or other similar messages in their impact, for example about monetary reform. Prices are rising due to the intensification of speculative purchasing of goods based on these rumors.
A situation is also possible when an increase in the price of a product contributes to the creation of rush demand for it and an increase, rather than a reduction in consumption.
The implementation of reforms in China has led to the fact that for its residents, the days have passed when a Chinese city dweller received four meters of blue cotton fabric for summer clothes on cards, and next year another half a meter for patches. People forgot about rationing and shortages. But this abundance suddenly turned into a negative side for the economy... This is deflation - a steady decline in retail prices caused by a fall in consumer demand. It seems that the development of free competition has made it possible to achieve the cherished goal; retail prices are not rising, but declining. However, what until then seemed like a blessing turned out to be a disaster for economic development. The country's production potential operates smoothly. But selling goods is becoming difficult. This is especially obvious in the example of household electrical appliances. Each family managed to acquire an electric rice cooker, washing machine, refrigerator, and TV. But the rush demand associated with the electrification of everyday life could not last forever. In 1998, China overtook Japan to become the world's number one producer of color televisions. 26 million of them were produced, but 10 million (more than 38%) of them were not sold. 50 million VCRs were produced, but only 15 million found consumers.
Especially when it comes to online shopping.
Specific examples:
Example 1.
Firstly, there are many Groupon-like sites that sell one service at a deep discount on one day. Long before these resources, discount sales sites were popular on the Internet. software. On one day, one program was exhibited, sold at a 50-80% discount.
All of these projects take advantage of rush demand to some extent. But at the same time, it would be wrong to consider that they are completely built on hype and limitation. The main component of such projects is. The restrictions that create excitement are a minor (though important) part of these projects.
Example 2
Sale of women's underwear.
Edition12 company long time was engaged in the sale of women's underwear in Germany. At one point, the founders decided to expand their field of activity by mastering the Internet. But not simple, but by launching something truly unusual.
Ultimately, it was decided to sell designer underwear - one set per month until the end of the month or the number of items available in stock. The cost of one set was 190 euros, which is quite a lot even for Europe.
The company's website featured a selection of lingerie, and Edition12 selected stunning images to entice women and showcase the sexiness of its products.
If we talk about the shopping process, the kit could only be ordered online. No phone calls, offline stores. Only the company website, which was intensively promoted. And, naturally, word of mouth spread around this idea.
Obviously, if Edition12 were an ordinary online store, then no one would be talking about it, despite the very interesting models of designer items. But the business model, which was based on selling just one set per month in a limited edition, turned out to be interesting and attracted visitors.
Can this be used in Russia?
I suppose so. However, you don’t necessarily need to sell underwear. In our country, various kinds of luxury goods are popular even during crises. Many people always want to stand out by having something special that is not available to everyone. This is exactly what you can play on by selling a limited edition of a product for a limited period, building an entire business on such an idea.
Example 3.
T-shirts for geeks.
Every day there is a new T-shirt in this store. Unique T-shirt. It contains a funny image dedicated to a movie, TV series, computer game or comic book. At the same time, the image is played up by “folk” designers.
Each T-shirt can only be purchased on the day of sale. Within 24 hours of admission. The next day the sale of another T-shirt begins. It is impossible to buy them from the “archive”. Therefore, you cannot postpone your order.
There are a huge number of stores with T-shirts for geeks. So why exactly has TeeFury become so popular? There are several reasons.
1) Limitation and uniqueness
You can only buy a specific T-shirt model within 24 hours. This is exclusive. At the same time, TeeFury approaches each T-shirt with extreme care. Not only in terms of images, but also the quality of the matter itself.
2) Community
3) Appreciative audience
Geeks. They spread word of mouth at the speed of light. If a T-shirt dedicated to the series “Game of Thrones” comes out, then its fans quickly begin to share a link to this T-shirt on Twitter, Facebook and blogs. And the rest don't have time to think. T-shirt is available for a limited time. So we need to decide right now. And buy if you don’t want to end up with your nose.
How are things going with this in Russia?
With geeks? Not good. However, they do not always have to be the main audience. We are talking about people who have some kind of passion.
Conclusion: Find an audience with your passion and create a rush of demand.
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Since childhood, Jack London's story about the gold rush has stuck in my memory. Remember, a stern man took a ransom in gold for his runaway wife, and poured it into an ice hole, and someone saw a gold mine...
How does rush demand arise in the market? Scroll through the sources on the Internet, and you will find out the theory: it is stimulated by some event (a factory burned down, a mine ran out, a revolution happened) or a shortage.
Recently I also poured gold into an ice hole, in the sense of pooping on someone. Not on purpose! I swear that's what happened. However, it’s better in order. I'm a knowledge worker, but instead of a hobby, I've been building something all my life. Yes, with my hands, worn out with a keyboard and a mouse, I lay concrete, foam blocks, bricks - I do everything that is needed for construction. He built dachas, gas stations, tire shops... and then, towards retirement, he ended up building his own house. For three years, little by little it grew, and since this spring I have been roofing every weekend. I don’t have time to do much, but things are moving.
Since winter I haven’t been able to resolve the issue of how to install an exit to the roof. At first I didn’t want to do it at all. It seemed that I would cover the house well, and I wouldn’t climb onto the roof for twenty years. After common sense took over. I won’t do twenty, but maybe later in my eighties I’ll need it. And what? I really decided to make a dormer window, but my neighbor talked me out of it.
- Why do you need these hemorrhoids with extra holes and valleys? Buy a ready-made sunroof window! – he advised.
I started searching. I found a brochure in the store and tried to order it there, but the manager turned out to be slow. Passed work week After ordering, I arrive on Saturday and there is no window. There is nothing to do, I turned to the online store. In one, in another, in a third... nowhere can they really answer my questions, but they offer what is more expensive. I'm tired of saying the same thing over and over again. He put the request-order in writing and posted it on the World Wide Web. A round order, so to speak. Remember, earlier power engineers did rolling blackouts, but I performed a rolling connection to solve my problem.
No. I got excited, I'm getting better. I didn’t throw it into the entire web, but only into that part of the network that was “dot ru”.
The network is hidden. Only a day later the first answer came. It’s also an insinuating question: “Dear, maybe you’ll take a dormer window? They are available, but there are no attic ones. They must be ordered."
Yeah. Why do I need an attic for 15 thousand if I want to buy it for half the price? I strictly advise you to order what I need, and not offer what you have. I'm waiting for other signals.
And he waited. They started calling from different places, inquiring, and clarifying the parameters. And time goes by! I found the addresses of real stores, since virtual ones cannot sell a real window. The two ended up next to each other, literally across the road. Had arrived. In the first, the girl looked up from the computer. All attention! He looks at you faithfully, like a friend. Or like a dog. However, it's the same thing.
- You offer hatch windows for access from an unheated attic to the roof! - I tell her firmly.
- We? – Her eyes widen in fear. I shouldn’t have rounded, they’re already big. But why should I care about the size of her eyes if I came outside the window. Besides for a little.
The girl takes the booklet and begins to diligently search for the product. Well-groomed paws quickly flipped through the pages. Eyelined eyes stumbled upon familiar word. Plump lips said without flinching:
- Here! I can offer you a window for 23 thousand...
“Expensive,” I cut off my attempt to empty my pocket. You can’t take us with your paws, eyes, and sponges. Age and experience! We pranced away and got out of the habit. And you don’t have to eat through the eyes of the client. – I ask for a hatch-window, not a window.
- Are there such things? – the interlocutor is amazed.
- There are. And there is. Look at page 16. Above! Below!! – I pointed my thin finger like a navigator at the desired picture.
- Oh! True, there are. I’ll look at the price now... - I looked and lowered my requests. - Twelve thousand. Will you order?
“I will, if the delivery time suits me,” I decide not to press on. Autumn is coming, it’s raining, and a piece of my roof is looking up at the sky with a hole.
The fingers ignored the regular phone and danced on the mobile phone.
“You’ll get it next week,” she made me happy.
- Where to get it?
- Here.
“I’ll come tomorrow with the money, we’ll place the order,” I reassure the girl and leave.
The normal male approach is to promise one and marry the other. I expect to find a place where it’s cheaper and faster. In the second store I was greeted like family. And they listened carefully. Like a pulmonologist, the breathing of a hopeless patient. But they didn’t console me.
- Three weeks. Not faster.
“I’ll make the usual exit,” I say. I refuse to conclude a supply agreement, but insinuatingly ask, “Why is it taking so long?”
- It's the season, you know. And at the factory they say that last days rush demand for these products.
The next day I find a dozen offers in my mailbox. The period ranges from “we’ll deliver now” to “in two to three weeks.” I bought it for six thousand eight hundred rubles...
This is how rush demand is created.
Reviews
I once read a story by a guy who wrote a “future bestseller.” Nobody wanted to take the book for sale - it was an unfamiliar author. Then he got his friends involved: they began running around bookstores and asking for his book, excitedly telling the sellers how hard they were looking for it - it was in great demand everywhere!
And it happened: after a couple of days, all the local stores went crazy, offering their services to this author, they made him a special booklet, and put it in the most prominent place. So an unknown person, thanks to an artificially created hype, became fashionable and in demand)))
Yes, the Internet is a great thing)))