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Mazur methods of historical research. Recommended literature

New information resources and technologies in historical research and education: a collection of abstracts of reports and messages of the All-Russian Conference. / Association “History and Computer”; edited by V.N. Vladimirova. – M., 2000. // Association “History and Computer” 1996-2007 [Electronic resource]. – 2003. Access mode: http://kleio.asu.ru/aik/bullet/26/bullet26.html. – Access date: 10/15/2007.

Mozhaeva, G.V., Feshchenko, A.V. Electronic resources in historical education / G.V. Mozhaeva, A.V. Feshchenko. – Tomsk: TSU, 2003 // Internet for historians [Electronic resource]. Access mode: http://edu.tsu.ru/historynet/informatika/posobia/his_educ/index.htm#top.

Trapsh N.A. archival search in the system of theoretical source studies // Document. Archive. Story. Modernity. Ekaterinburg. Vol. 8. 2008. pp. 102-105.

State Public Historical Library (http://www.shpl.ru):

Russian National Library (St. Petersburg) (http:www.nlr.ru):

Topic 5. Characteristics of the main methods historical research(2 hours)

General historical methods in historical research. Historical-genetic method. Historical-comparative method. Historical-typological method (classification methods). Historical-systemic method. Approaches, principles, research methods. Assessment of cognitive abilities. Private scientific methods in historical research.

Literature

Barton V.I. Comparison as a means of cognition. Novosibirsk, 1986.

Selunskaya N.B. Problems of historical methodology. M, 2003 Kolpakov E.M. Theory of archaeological classification St. Petersburg, 1991.

Kuzmin V.P. The principle of consistency in the theory and methodology of K. Marx. M., 1976.

Markov D.F. Comparative historical and comprehensive research in the social sciences: from the experience of studying the history and culture of the peoples of Central and South-Eastern Europe. M., 1984.

Melkonyan E.L. Problems of the comparative method in historical knowledge. Yerevan, 1981.

Parfenov I.D. Methodology historical science. Saratov, 2001.

Neusykhin A.I. The emergence of the dependent peasantry as a class of early feudal society in Western Europe VI-VIII centuries M., 1956. P.4-7.

Repina L.V., Zvereva G.I. Story historical knowledge. M, 2004.

Rozova S.S. Classification problem in modern science. Novosibirsk, 1986.

Rakitov A.I. Historical knowledge. M., 1983.

Smolensky N.I. Theory and methodology of history. M., 2008.

Santsevich A.V. Methodology of historical research. Kyiv, 1990.

Theory and methodology of historical science. Terminological dictionary. M., 2014.

Typology and classification in sociological research. M., 1982.

Topic 6. Mathematization of scientific research in historical science (2 hours)

The concept of quantitative and mathematical methods. Cliometrics and historical information science. Conditions for mathematization of historical research. Types of research problems solved by quantitative and mathematical methods. Cognitive capabilities of computer technologies in historical research. Conditions for the correct application of quantitative methods in historical research.

Literature

Belova E.B., Borodkin L.I., Garskova I.M., Izmestieva D.S., Lazarev V.V. Historical information science. M., 1996.

Bessmerny Yu.L. Some questions of the application of mathematical methods in the research of Soviet historians // Mathematical methods in historical research. M., 1972.

Borishpolets K.P. Methods of political research. Tutorial. M., 2005.

Borodkin L.I. Methodological problems of application of mathematical methods in historical and humanitarian research // Mathematization of modern science: prerequisites, problems, prospects. M., 1986.

Kakhk Yu.Yu., Kovalchenko I.D. Methodological problems of using quantitative methods in historical research // History of the USSR. No. 5. 1974.

Kakhk Yu.Yu. Some aspects of the application of mathematical methods in historical research // Source Studies national history. M., 1977.

Kakhk Yu.Yu. Mathematical methods in historical research (the experience of Soviet and American scientists) // Questions of history. No. 2. 1989.

Kovalchenko I.D. The place of quantitative methods in historical research // Historical science. Methodological issues. M., 1986.

Kovalchenko I.D. Methods of historical research. M., 1987; 2003.

Quantitative methods in Soviet and American historiography. M., 1983.

Lavrinenko V.N., Pushilova L.M. study of socio-historical and political processes. Tutorial. M., 2007.

finances, personnel policy, theological schools, foreign and intra-church contacts, the content of sermons, the agenda of the Synod meetings and its decisions, church literature, after passing the censorship of the Council, was published in state printing houses). The hierarchy became part of the nomenklatura (with residences, rations, cars, dachas, sanatoriums, medical care and orders) (about this, see vol. 2, p. 304, note 1). But, as before, the state in relations with the Church was represented by state security agencies. Only the former head of the 5th Department of the 2nd Directorate of the NKGB for the fight against church-sectarian counter-revolution, State Security Colonel Karpov, was given “another task.” Leadership positions in the Council and most positions of its local representatives in Stalin period occupied by current and former security officers. However, during the Stalinist period, all organizations in the country were under their supervision, including the Communist Party. The practice of control over the Church by the MGB and then the KGB continued until the end of the existence of the USSR.

Having decided to include the Church in the Soviet political system, Stalin was concerned with creating a system for training clergy loyal to the Soviet regime (8 seminaries and 2 academies with 1,200 students in 1958) and monitoring its hierarchical promotion. It was the Council that determined the number, norms and criteria for selecting candidates.

dates of admission to theological schools. The Patriarch “coordinated” with the Council all personnel movements and appointments in the Church. A significant part of the letters and notes to them are devoted to this, indicating that this control was gradually tightened.

The new church course was not Stalin’s personal “whim”. Malenkov, Molotov, Voroshilov, Bulganin spoke out for its continuation even after 1953. Karpov was an ardent supporter of this policy and tried to carry it out even after the change in the country's political leadership.

The correspondence of Patriarch Alexy I with Karpov and Kuroyedov shows in detail the mechanism for transforming church leadership into one of the links in the state apparatus. But, as Orlova notes, with the creation of the Council for Religious Affairs in 1965, “materials related to the activities of the Russian Orthodox Church began to occupy the same position in it as documents relating to other confessions on the territory of the USSR. In the reports of the Council for Religious Affairs in the Central Committee and the Council of Ministers, issues related to the Russian Orthodox Church, are practically absent” (vol. 2, p. 26). The reasons for this decline in the authorities' interest in the Church require additional research.

B.A. Filippov, Candidate of Historical Sciences (Orthodox St. Tikhon's Humanitarian University)

L.N. Mazur. Methods of historical research. Ekaterinburg: UrSU, 2010. 607 p.

Modern trends in the development of historical knowledge are revealed in the search for criteria and foundations for understanding the problems of a globalizing world, the new integrity of human communities in their unity and diversity. Methodological research is manifested in substantiating the informational nature of human activity, systematicity as an integral property of societies and the historical process as a whole, and actualizes a new understanding of the phenomenon of progress and patterns in history. The justification of the criteria for the scientific nature of historical knowledge in the domestic historiography of modern times has found its most vivid embodiment in the nomination of O.M. and A.N. Medushevsky cognitive-information theory of modern

humanitarian knowledge1. Their posing of the question of history as a rigorous science coincided with an intensive search for scientific methods, techniques and tools aimed at achieving sound results of historical research, which has marked the development of the professional community in the last decade. One of the embodied variants of scientific and methodological developments of this kind is the book by L.N. Mazur “Methods of historical research.”

It represents an original version of a comprehensive development of the problem of the historian's methodological tools. The structure of the book seems quite reasonable: from consideration of the essential problems of historical research, its

features, nature, method, the author proceeds to reveal methods and techniques for collecting, systematizing, and then analyzing historical data, showing the relationship of these methods with qualitative features various types and stages of historical research. In his work, the author takes into account the achievements of domestic historical schools of source study and methodology, primarily, as we see it, the school of academician I.D. Kovalchenko with her characteristic special attention to the problems of extracting, processing and analyzing information historical sources, especially mass ones.

An important place in Mazur’s work is occupied by the theory of method and the development of the problem of scientific methods in history. The author shows different approaches to its solution, evaluates the achievements of modern historiography in understanding the essence historical methods, their types and systems, classifications of the totality of scientific methods used in historical research. It is no coincidence that the author identified a special classification of methods, determined on the basis of distinguishing between information tasks implemented by a historian in his work, and research practices corresponding to these tasks. This classification, which includes methods for collecting and recording information, methods for systematizing and organizing it, as well as methods for analysis and synthesis, largely determines the structure, logic and value of the book. The author considers the combination of precisely these methods to be a methodology for historical research (p. 60).

Mazur’s contribution to the solution of this problem is the substantiation of the idea of a basic method, determined by the specifics of the subject and purpose of the research, defining approaches and tools at all its stages, as well as provisions on additional methods aimed at implementing specific scientific tasks of work. In the author’s interpretation of the “basic method”, in my opinion, there appears a broad interpretation of the method as a methodology, a general approach to research, a method of conducting it, a set of not only rules and procedures, but also the ways and principles that define them for solving a given problem. In this case, as it seems to me, one can see the influence of the tradition laid down by Kovalchenko, who emphasized that “the scientific method is a theoretically based normative cognitive tool”2.

Assessing the classifications of basic (traditional) methods of historical research available in the scientific literature, Mazur complements and clarifies their composition, substantiates

specificity, feasibility and scope of application (p. 387-486). These methods include historical-systemic, historical-typological, classification, historical-dynamic, historical-comparative (comparative), historical-genetic types of analysis. In each case, the author pays main attention to the methodological aspects of their use, the types of research for which they are adequate, and gives examples of their correct and incorrect use.

Considering the logic of historical research, defined as a system of theoretical and empirical procedures aimed at obtaining new knowledge, the author identifies its general and variable elements, the nature of possible implementations. Mazur distinguishes theoretical and specific historical research, analytical and descriptive works, drawing attention to the advisability of combining an analytical and descriptive research plan as the most optimal option for historical work. It seems that the division into theoretical and descriptive works is still somewhat artificial. In principle, there cannot be purely theoretical historical research, since history is an empirical science, the subject of historical research has its own source base, and the conclusions of each work must be based precisely on this empirical basis, always limited to a certain spatial and chronological framework. Another thing is the use by historians of the results of other studies, including in related sciences, which give the opportunity to look at their subject from a different perspective. new point perspective and, using the research “focus” set by a different theoretical horizon, interdisciplinary concepts and methods, to see the hidden possibilities of sources and their interpretation, to deepen the theoretical understanding of the problem. Longer trends, tendencies and features of historical processes can be identified when conducting collective research, writing collective monographs, historiographical works, as part of the implementation of scientific projects that provide opportunities for broader generalizations.

Along with the distinction between analytical (theoretical) and descriptive (empirical) studies, Mazur distinguishes between continuous and non-continuous studies. The most important thing in this section of the book is the consideration and substantiation of the idea that each type of research, having independent value, is associated with the use of different techniques and methods of organization and

giving material. If a continuous study is aimed at studying any mass historical object or process and its generalized assessment, it is associated with an analysis of the summary characteristics of the object of study, then a non-continuous one is built on the study of some part of a mass historical object. The author substantiates the types of non-continuous research: monographic, study of elite groups, selective, showing the specifics of methods for selecting part of a mass object and the associated features of the methodology and methodology of these studies. The importance of studying the individual and unique in history, Mazur notes, underlies many scientific directions- historical anthropology, microhistory, local history, biography, etc.

The book sufficiently reflects the methodologically complex problem of the specifics of historical knowledge in comparison with natural science and other types of socio-humanitarian knowledge. Mazur rightly connects it with the incompleteness of historical information, subjectivity about

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"L. N. Mazur METHODS OF HISTORICAL RESEARCH Approved by the Educational and Methodological Association for Classical University...”

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In a broad sense, modeling can be considered as a completely standard procedure scientific research. It is implemented, in particular, in theoretical constructions, since the creation of a theory, just like modeling, is based on techniques of abstraction and formalization of the object being studied. Moreover, each science uses its own coding tools that have become familiar - this can be a verbal or mathematical description, mapping or creating layouts. In any science, model structures are used to represent reality, which only to a certain extent reflect its features.

Stand out following types models:

A physical model represents the object of study, taking into account its external characteristics, parameters and reproduces physical external properties. This model is designed for visual perception and helps historians solve issues related to the reconstruction of living conditions, clothing, and the appearance of historical figures or ordinary people. Physical modeling is widely used in archaeology, anthropology, and ethnography. Thus, the works of M. M. Gerasimov, associated with the reconstruction of the appearance, became world famous ancient man, as well as many historical figures - Ivan the Terrible, Ulugbek, Tamerlane, etc. The creation of models of this type is widely used in museum practice;

The analogue model represents the object under study using an analogue that behaves like a real object, but does not look like one. The analog model assumes a higher level of abstraction, reflecting the most significant features and properties of the object. This can be a map, diagram or graph, with the help of which the spatial structure, structure or processes of the phenomenon being studied are visualized.

As an example of analogue modeling, we can cite the graphical model of the “basic equilibrium” of A.V. Chayanov (Fig. 12.5), who, while studying the patterns of functioning of a peasant economy, suggested that “every labor economy has a natural limit of its production, which is determined by the proportionality the tension of annual labor with the degree of satisfaction of the needs of the farming family”29.

Rice. 12.5. Cost-Marginal Utility Model

He proved that the main regulator of a family’s economic activity is the level of satisfaction of its needs, and showed this dependence in the form of a graph. In Fig. 12.5 curve AB shows the severity of the acquisition of the marginal ruble. The higher it is, the harder each extra ruble a worker produces is for him. The CD curve shows the marginal utility of these rubles. The principle of marginal utility is commented on by A.V. Chayanov as follows: “The subjective assessment of the 20th, 30th ruble will be high, but with each subsequent increase in the total amount of annual income, the subjective value of the marginal ruble will fall, since it will satisfy those who are less important in the eyes of family needs”30. The graphs of functions intersect at a single point X - this is the equilibrium point of labor 29 Chayanov A.V. Peasant farming. M., 1989. P. 244.

household farming, which corresponds to 67 rubles. In it, the subjective assessment of the ruble, obtained with extreme labor, is equal to the subjective assessment of its heaviness. Each next ruble, in terms of its marginal utility, will be valued lower than the difficulty of obtaining it. This graphical model gives researchers an understanding of the internal motivational mechanisms influencing work activity;

A mathematical model uses mathematical symbols to describe the properties and characteristics of an object or event.

Mathematical modeling is a rather complex procedure, which has so far been used to a limited extent in historical research. There are several reasons for this. First of all, historical processes and phenomena are quite complex for constructing models due to their multidimensionality and multifactorial nature. Any model essentially represents the object or process being studied in a somewhat simplified form, i.e. involves formalizing the diversity of historical information and bringing it to several basic categories and characteristics that form the basis of the model. In this case, it is fundamentally important to substantiate the reliability of these categories, to what extent they correspond to the modeling tasks. Besides, existing methods and technologies do not always allow us to adequately reflect the specifics of a historical object. When conducting such studies, the problem of correct use of modeling methods always arises.

The applicability of methods, in turn, is determined by the object of research and its information aspects. Moreover, the information prerequisites for modeling need to be especially emphasized, since in order to build a historical model, sufficient and reliable primary information is needed from the point of view of modeling. The creation of such an array is associated with the systematization and formalization of information from mass sources.

Thus, to carry out mathematical modeling of a historical object or process, it is necessary to have three main prerequisites:

1) an object of study, the behavior of which can be described using mathematical models;

2) correct modeling methods;

3) the corresponding information array.

The most popular modeling methods in historical science are:

1) methods of probability theory, which are used to study mass phenomena and processes;

2) simulation methods that allow one to reproduce real phenomena and determine the results of various actions;

3) programming methods that can be used to find optimal solution for complex tasks.

When carrying out modeling, the problem of its “economic efficiency” arises. This expensive tool should only be used when traditional solutions to the problem do not work. It is justified if it allows you to get new information, missing from the initial set of initial data, or the problem is formulated in such a way that it cannot be solved without an experiment. In particular, the study of alternative history is possible only at the level of modeling.

The language used to describe the model is very important. Of course, a historian is not required to know all the procedures for processing information; he may not understand the mathematical side of the model. For this you need special training. The combination of the competencies of a historian and a mathematician in one person is a rather rare phenomenon. Therefore, the implementation of scientific projects related to modeling is most often carried out by scientific teams, including historians and mathematicians. Nevertheless, a modern historian should have an idea of the possibilities and challenges of using a particular modeling method. This is necessary to perform the function of a task manager. Modeling most clearly reflects one of the main trends in science - the need for integration and cooperation of sciences both at the theoretical and instrumental levels.

In history, there are several approaches to modeling historical phenomena and processes:

Based on mass sources and theoretical ideas established in science about the object being studied, a quantitative model is created that more deeply reveals the structure, functional connections, stages and stages of development of a historical phenomenon;

The model is used to study those phenomena and processes whose qualitative characterization is difficult and does not have clear criteria. Modeling in this case makes it possible to clarify their properties and parameters.

Building the model includes the following steps:

1) setting up the task. At this stage, it is important to determine the essence of the problem and the object of modeling;

2) construction of a model. This stage is associated with determining the purpose of modeling, collecting and formalizing initial data. Taking these factors into account, the type of model that best suits the tasks being solved is selected and justified;

3) checking for reliability. It is important to prove to what extent the model corresponds to a real historical object, whether all essential elements and connections are built into it. Another aspect of model testing is related to the extent to which the information obtained with its help helps the researcher solve the problem;

4) INTERPRETATION OF THE MODEL. After checking for plausibility, the model is ready for use and interpretation. The result obtained requires careful, correct reading and decoding. This task is complicated by the fact that modeling is characterized by a high level of abstraction. Correlating modeling results with specific historical phenomena, as a rule, faces problems of incomplete analogies and random deviations. Complexities of interpretation and a significant proportion of assumptions and subjective interpretations all create an atmosphere of mistrust in the results mathematical modeling among professional historians. Using modeling as a method of verification violates the cornerstone principle of historical research: confirming a conclusion with a fact.

And although the model is a type of fact, it nevertheless does not coincide with the concept of historical fact and therefore does not look convincing to many.

There are several approaches to classifying types of historical models. So, for example, Chernavsky proposed a division of mathematical models into two types, taking into account the description of the phenomenon being studied at the historical level: imitative and scientific. Basic models contain a minimum number of parameters, do not pretend to provide a detailed description of the phenomenon, and provide a qualitative picture of the behavior of the system as a whole. They help to understand the basic mechanisms of the process being studied. Simulation models include many parameters and variables, claiming to detailed description specific objects and phenomena31.

K.V. Khvostova gave her classification of mathematical historical models, dividing them into specific historical and global. This division is constructed taking into account the methodological approaches that are implemented during modeling and the information base used. In concrete historical models, real historical processes and phenomena reflected in sources at the level of atomic facts are formalized.

The task of such a model is to understand the complex mechanism of cause-and-effect relationships that ensure the development of specific historical objects in a situational context. Global models are based not on facts, but on a certain system of theoretical ideas about a historical object or process, which are considered as initial postulates and allow the formation of models high level generalizations covering significant time and geographical characteristics historical phenomena32. Global models are more susceptible to incorrect constructions and interpretations due to the high level of abstraction, formalization and simplification of historical information.

3 Mityukov N.V. On the typology of mathematical models of military-historical processes // History and Mathematics. Analysis and modeling of socio-historical processes. M., 2007. P. 122.

32 Khvostova K.V. Mathematical methods in historical research and modern epistemology of history // New and recent history. 2007. № 3.

Based on the existing experience of classifications taking into account the problems being solved, it is possible to expand and clarify the classification scheme, highlighting the following types of historical models: specific historical, imitative, counterfactual. The latter variety is often considered as a variant of the simulation model.

Specific historical models that characterize real historical objects or processes are used quite widely and are most recognized by historians. The creation of specific historical situational models, according to K. V. Khvostova’s definition, allows us to present historical objects and processes in the most correct way and with the greatest degree of reliability. The peculiarity of such models is that they are based on historical facts (primary information) contained in mass historical sources, which can be considered as some analogue of an “axiom” in the system of evidence.

An example of a concrete historical model is the study of K. V. Khvostova, based on the principle of situationality.

In particular, her study of the processes of differentiation of the medieval peasantry is based on the development of a nonlinear model, which was based on stratification coefficients that take into account the dependence of several parameters:

the size of the land plot; the degree of poverty (wealth) at a certain point in time. The calculation was carried out on the basis of data from land tax inventories of individual peasant settlements, which reflected local-temporal variations in the development of the stratification process. The model was verified taking into account normative sources that were not involved in the modeling.

As a starting point for constructing the model, we used the statement that the predominance of a layer of peasants of average prosperity - holders of a “normal” allotment - was typical for a medieval community. Over the course of some time, some representatives of the middle class lost part of their allotment or acquired a certain amount of land, that is, they became poorer or richer. However, this process cannot be assessed linearly, as the concentration of land among some peasants at the expense of the impoverishment of others. Impoverishment was most often associated with the transfer of land to representatives of the ruling class, or the land was abandoned and left uncultivated. Enrichment occurred as a result of the purchase of land, but not necessarily from other peasants, perhaps by bringing empty land into circulation or for other reasons. The model reflects the following relationship: “The impoverishment of each peasant in this moment time is directly proportional to his loss of land of a certain size and the degree of his poverty at that moment in time. Enrichment is directly proportional to the size of the acquired land at a fixed point in time and inversely proportional to the degree of wealth at the same moment. This means that the acquisition of land of a certain size is more significant for a less wealthy owner compared to the value that the same increase in land would have on the farm of a richer peasant”33.

Thus, the above model, described both by verbal means and mathematical ones (differential equations), was based on information from sources that acted as initial axioms. And this required condition to implement the principle of historicism, which is often forgotten when carrying out mathematical modeling.

Imitation modeling, in contrast to specific historical modeling, implements a different methodological approach (deductive). It is repelled not so much from historical facts, how much depends on those theoretical abstract concepts that researchers take on faith and consider as the initial basic axioms. This applies, first of all, to simulation models that claim to reflect historical processes at a global level. They are currently being actively developed within the framework of applied mathematics and claim to be a new “analytical” understanding of history34.

33 Khvostova K.V. Mathematical methods in historical research and modern epistemology of history. P. 69.

34 We are talking about the formation of such a direction as “cliodynamics”, associated with the development of models of historical macro processes, including demographic, political, economic, etc. See: History and mathematics:

macrohistorical dynamics of society and state. M., 2007; History and mathematics: problems of periodization of historical macroprocesses. M., 2006; and etc.

The danger of this approach is that, despite the external appearance of historical discourse, the research loses any historical meaning and significance, since it is not the model that is used to understand historical processes, but, on the contrary, historical information used to test the performance of mathematical models, which affects the principles of information selection and its use. Such models, as a rule, are not accepted by professional historians, but are very attractive to the uninitiated.

You can select a row characteristic features, characteristic of “pseudo-prehistoric” works based on global modeling:

The research source base is not disclosed and is replaced by a conditional information base, the formation technologies of which are usually not disclosed and do not correspond to the basic principles of working with historical sources (complexity, criticality, correctness of interpretation);

The selection of historical information and facts for testing models is illustrative, targeted in nature and affects the formalized simplified reflection of the historical process;

Using "your" scientific language, based on the widespread use of mathematical terms and concepts, free interpretation of historical categories, and the introduction of one’s own concepts that have a very abstract, although structured, content. As a result, the semantic code of the model turns out to be alien to historians and creates semantic barriers to perception.

Unfortunately, such “pseudo-historical studies”

discredit the idea of mathematical modeling and slow down the processes of mathematization of historical science. It is also worth noting the high cost and low effectiveness of global simulation modeling, since most often truths that have long been known to historians are “discovered.”

In addition to global simulation models, historical science has more successful experience in the use of simulation models, which is associated with specific historical objects and source complexes.

They are used to solve the following problems:

1) reconstruction of historical reality in order to fill existing information gaps, as well as for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms and patterns of historical development;

2) conducting numerical experiments to identify possible alternatives to historical development.

One of the most famous experiments in simulation modeling was an attempt to reproduce, on the basis of surviving data, the demographic and economic aspects of the life of Attic society in the 8th-6th centuries. BC e. Researchers (A. S. Guseinova, Yu. N. Pavlovskaya and V. A. Ustinov) set the task of developing a model of the economic dynamics of ancient Greek city policies, describing the processes of production, distribution, exchange and consumption of material goods, as well as the influence on these processes war, and tried to interpret this model in relation to the period of the Peloponnesian War of 431-404. BC e.35 The creation of a socio-economic model of ancient Greek city-states and conducting simulation experiments made it possible to recreate the dynamics of the functioning of the main Greek city-states during the Peloponnesian War. The areas of cultivated land in the policies were clarified, as well as the areas under the main agricultural crops, the population of each policy by category, the yield in each policy, average prices for basic consumer goods, production volumes, the volume and composition of exports and imports, income and expenses of each segment of the population. The model made it possible to obtain digital data for Corinth and Syracuse, although there is practically no information on them in historical sources.

Many prominent scientists dealt with the issues of mathematical modeling - I. D. Kovalchenko, J1. I. Borodkin. For many years, the Department of Historical Informatics of Moscow State University has been conducting research in the field of creating nonlinear models of historical 35 Guseinova A. S., Pavlovskaya Yu. N., Ustinov V. A. Experience in simulation modeling of the historical process. M., 1984. P. 17.

processes, the study of unstable, chaotic states.

Based on the synergetic approach, models of the strike movement in pre-revolutionary Russia(A. Yu. Andreev, J1. I. Borodkin, M. I. Levandovsky), models of interaction between branches of government (L. I. Borodkin)36, which allowed us to take a fresh look at the mechanisms of development of political processes and the possibilities of their regulation.

Historical simulation models, without a doubt, are of significant interest and are an effective tool for cognition, since they take into account the specifics of historical research to a greater extent.

Counterfactual models are a type of simulation modeling. Their use is associated with the development of such directions as alternative history, allowing for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms of interaction between the natural and the random in historical space.

One of the first attempts at counterfactual modeling is Robert Fogel's Railroads and Economic Growth (1964), which examines the possible development of 19th-century America. Without railways. The author disputes the assertion that the construction of railways was the main and decisive stimulus for the development of all sectors of the country's economy and proves that water and horse-drawn transportation could become the main means of communication. In domestic historiography, as an example of counterfactual modeling, one can consider the study of Yu. P. Bokarev, who proposed a model of a cashless economy in the 1920s. in conditions of natural exchange between city and countryside. He disputes the opinion that the policy of war communism was introduced as a temporary measure, economically unjustified and without practical success37.

36 See, for example: Andreev A. Yu., Borodkin L. I. Nonlinear model of the strike movement: analysis of self-organization // Circle of Ideas: electronic resources and historical computer science. M.; Barnaul, 2003. pp. 434-490.

37 Bokarev Yu. P. Socialist industry and small peasant farming in the USSR in the 20s: sources, research methods, stages of relationships. M., 1989.

Historical modeling is finding more and more supporters not only among “natural scientists” and mathematicians, but also among historians.

The successes of historical modeling do not eliminate the methodological problems that are inextricably linked with the use of such complex tools. Discussions about the peculiarities of historical knowledge and the possibilities of using rigorous mathematical apparatus for these purposes are again unfolding.

The lack of developed modeling procedures adapted to the specifics of the object of historical research and the information environment on which they rely often leads to obvious simplifications and incorrect interpretation of historical processes, causing rejection of new methods by the historical community. This especially applies to models classified, in the words of K. V. Khvostova, as “global”, divorced from a specific source and, ultimately, from history.

The lack of development of the methodological basis of historical modeling is a reflection of the fact that these approaches have become tools for studying historical reality relatively recently and, to a certain extent, contradict the established tools and principles of research in historical science. To overcome this contradiction, a dialogue based on the interaction and cooperation of historians and mathematicians is necessary.

TEST QUESTIONS AND TASKS

1. Highlight the main content and patterns of mathematization of historical science.

2. What stages of mathematization of domestic science can you indicate? What are their features?

3. Indicate the basic methodological principles of using quantitative indicators in historical research.

4. What is a statistical indicator, statistical sign?

5. Name the main classifications of statistical indicators.

6. What is an absolute indicator?

7. What varieties absolute values You know? What tasks do these quantities perform?

8. Name the main forms and types of relative indicators.

What analysis capabilities do they provide?

9. What is a typical average?

10. What types of averages do you know?

11. What problems are solved using averages?

12. For what purposes are indicators of variation needed in historical research?

13. Consider the main stages of dynamic analysis.

14. What problems are solved using dynamics indicators?

15. Why is it common to talk about a system of dynamics indicators? What elements does it consist of?

16. What does the concept of “trend” mean and what methods of identifying a trend can you name?

17. Expand the content of the correlation method.

18. Why are several correlation coefficients developed in statistics? What is the difference?

19. To consider what issues are methods of multivariate statistics used in history?

20. What methods of multivariate statistics interested you and why?

21. Define the historical model.

CONCLUSION

Historical science, the object of study of which is society in the past, has its own specific features and characteristics that distinguish it from natural science disciplines. These include:

Incompleteness of preserved information about the past;

Subjectivity associated with the personal aspect of the study;

Presence of goal setting historical search associated with the selection of material, formulation of research problems, which is often reflected in the completeness of the research picture and its substantive aspects;

Difficulty in verifying historical knowledge;

The remoteness of events, which makes it difficult to understand and adequately interpret the surviving sources;

The predominance of descriptive forms and methods of presenting historical knowledge;

Chronological and event-based approach to the study of history.

All these features directly affect the methodological tools, which, on the one hand, are aimed at objectifying and increasing the reliability of historical ideas and knowledge, and on the other, at filling in the missing information.

The lack of opportunities for experimental or experimental verification of acquired knowledge forces a more strict approach to the procedures for collecting information, interpreting it, constructing and proving hypotheses. Big role Mathematization of scientific knowledge plays a role in solving these problems. The development and implementation of statistical methods in various branches of science, including history, is called a revolution by some scientists, since they made it possible to expand the existing understanding of causal dependencies in the surrounding world, its diversity and variability.

As historical science develops, its methodological arsenal expands and becomes more complex, primarily due to the inclusion of methods from related sciences. The integration of social sciences in theoretical and methodological terms is the most obvious process that changes historical science, forming new directions, branches of historical knowledge, placing new demands on the subject of knowledge - the historian. First of all, he touched upon foreign historical science. IN national science A noticeable breakthrough in the field of historical research methodology occurred in the 1990s, when Russian historians began to actively master the methodological and methodological tools that had already undergone serious and long-term testing in foreign historical science. This also applies to the technologies of oral history and the implementation of the principles of the anthropological approach to the study of historical practices. The inclusion of Russian historical science in the international science community(not only in organizational terms, but also at the individual level) influenced the change in ideas about professional qualities and the skills of a historian.

Methods have taken their place in modern historical science quantitative analysis, sampling, sociological tools, computer technology. Mastering these methods is not an easy problem; it is closely related to research practice and requires not only the mastery of basic techniques, but also the creative adaptation of these methods to specific tasks, taking into account the individual abilities of the scientist, his ideas about the necessary and sufficient methodological tools.

However, for a historian’s choice to be meaningful and effective, it must be based on knowledge of the methods that are used in modern historical science, an understanding of their capabilities and limitations.

Another pattern scientific creativity is associated with a deepening division of labor, when the results of the research activities of some groups of people (experimenters, theorists, methodologists) become the starting point for the cognitive activity of others. In historical science, as in other areas of scientific research, there is a specialization and professionalization of scientific research work. Scientists solve different problems, they develop different skills, interests, criteria and assessments. This often leads to mutual misunderstanding and disagreement. As a result, the coordination of empirical and theoretical problems in modern science becomes one of the most pressing problems. If in natural and technical sciences While such a division of labor has long become commonplace, in the humanities the idea of a scientist as a “universal” researcher who equally masters the techniques of working with historical sources and facts, has a conceptual mindset and applies methodological design still prevails in the humanities. .

This is a utopia! Each researcher, due to his individual qualities, turns out to be prone to one or another type of research practice. And this specialization, willingly or unwillingly, manifests itself in historical works. In one case, a significant research result may be associated with obtaining new facts, creating a more complete and detailed picture of the past based on jewelry work with historical sources.

In a different - strong point The scientist is manifested in the development of theoretical aspects of historical phenomena, the analysis of its internal patterns. In the third, the possibilities of new research methods in relation to historical issues are revealed. Being a generalist in the modern scientific environment is very difficult and accessible to only a few, although one should strive for this.

Summarizing the characteristics of the theoretical and methodological aspects of the study, it is necessary to emphasize that in order to carry out full-fledged historical work, the following conditions must be met:

There must be a clear understanding of the specifics of the object and subject of research, the study of which is carried out, as a rule, at the intersection of sciences. Any historical problem is the default interdiscipline of the Narn. Without mastering and systematizing the entire complex of methodological developments in this matter, it is impossible to give an adequate assessment of the historical processes being studied;

Creation of a source base appropriate to the research objectives, allowing for a comprehensive analysis of the object and subject of research. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to possess the skills of searching, systematizing, and analyzing historical sources. A complex approach to the formation of a source base allows you to pose and solve research problems at a new level: not only to reconstruct and describe a historical phenomenon, but also to give its qualitative assessment based on the involvement of the whole variety of evidence and data;

The objectives of the research and the characteristics of the source base directly affect the methodological techniques of analysis.

The methodological basis of the research must be comprehensive; it must balance both traditional methods of historical research and formal techniques aimed at building models of the phenomenon being studied.

The use of quantitative methods is not only justified, but also necessary; without them it is impossible to systematize and generalize the primary concrete historical material.

For successful scientific activity today, one cannot be confined to the circle of familiar and customary practices. Curiosity and the desire to learn new techniques and technologies can ultimately push the boundaries of what is possible and produce new scientific results. Although there is another danger - falling into fruitless experimentation. “Est modus in rebus” - the main thing is to find your measure and place in historical science. Good luck...

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To search for a phrase, you need to enclose the query in double quotes:

" research and development "

Search by synonyms

To include synonyms of a word in the search results, you need to put a hash " # " before a word or before an expression in parentheses.
When applied to one word, up to three synonyms will be found for it.
When applied to a parenthetical expression, a synonym will be added to each word if one is found.
Not compatible with morphology-free search, prefix search, or phrase search.

# study

Grouping

In order to group search phrases you need to use brackets. This allows you to control the Boolean logic of the request.
For example, you need to make a request: find documents whose author is Ivanov or Petrov, and the title contains the words research or development:

Approximate word search

For approximate search you need to put a tilde " ~ " at the end of a word from a phrase. For example:

bromine ~

When searching, words such as "bromine", "rum", "industrial", etc. will be found.
You can additionally specify the maximum number of possible edits: 0, 1 or 2. For example:

bromine ~1

By default, 2 edits are allowed.

Proximity criterion

To search by proximity criterion, you need to put a tilde " ~ " at the end of the phrase. For example, to find documents with the words research and development within 2 words, use the following query:

" research development "~2

Relevance of expressions

To change the relevance of individual expressions in the search, use the " sign ^ " at the end of the expression, followed by the level of relevance of this expression in relation to the others.
The higher the level, the more relevant the expression is.
For example, in this expression, the word “research” is four times more relevant than the word “development”:

study ^4 development

By default, the level is 1. Valid values is a positive real number.

Search within an interval

To indicate the interval in which the value of a field should be located, you should indicate the boundary values in parentheses, separated by the operator TO.
Lexicographic sorting will be performed.

Such a query will return results with an author starting from Ivanov and ending with Petrov, but Ivanov and Petrov will not be included in the result.
To include a value in a range, use square brackets. To exclude a value, use curly braces.