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home  /  Health/ Financial modeling in investment projects. Drivers of growth and development Indicators necessary to take into account in financial modeling

Financial modeling in investment projects. Drivers of growth and development Indicators necessary to take into account in financial modeling

We made financial modeling an important and integral part of effective company management. A detailed and competent model allows you to plan and analyze the development of the project under any changes in conditions. Financial models significantly simplify risk assessment and increase the efficiency of strategic decision-making.

The term financial modeling is widely used in the field of evaluation of investment projects and in business evaluation. In this case, financial models make it possible to visualize the economics of the project and evaluate the effectiveness of investments in a particular asset.

Financial modeling itself is used much more often. Essentially, any economic justification for a management decision is a financial model, and its preparation is financial modeling. Depending on the decision, the variability and duration of the consequences, the model can be built speculatively, on paper or on a computer; its detail depends on the goals facing the manager.

A financial model is a financial management tool that is used to create models of processes and objects for the purpose of studying, analyzing, planning and forecasting.

If we classify financial models based on time, we can divide them into two large groups:

  • financial models for making strategic decisions;
  • financial models for making operational (or tactical) decisions.

The first group includes financial models for evaluating investment projects, determining the value of a business, macroeconomic forecasts, etc.

The second group includes financial models for predicting the effect of changes in the motivation system, procurement policy, implementation of tax optimization, etc.

Requirements for the financial model

Regardless of the timing and detail, the financial model must meet certain requirements.

The first and most important requirement to the financial model is compliance with the tasks set for its compiler.

Second requirement– the costs of preparing a financial model should not exceed the benefits from its creation. This benefit can manifest itself both in choosing a more effective project and in abandoning unprofitable decisions. These two requirements together form the principle of economic feasibility.

Third requirement to the financial model is its controllability. If your financial model influences management decisions, then you must be sure that it correctly processes the source data.

Fourth requirement to the financial model is its versatility and scalability. The universality of the financial model suggests that it can be used to evaluate and justify similar projects without making significant changes to the calculation procedure. Scalability in the context of financial modeling means that the model will work stably when the initial prerequisites become more complex, for example: expanding the assortment matrix, detailing fixed and variable costs, planning additional personnel.

Fifth requirement to the financial model is its manageability and ergonomics. The financial model needs to be built in such a way that the calculated indicators depend on the premises, and after some time, both the author of the model and the other user can figure out what and where needs to be changed in order to see a new result.

Naturally, the principle of economic feasibility comes first: there is no point in assembling a cannon for shooting sparrows. But you shouldn’t neglect other requirements either - this will reduce time costs in the future, when a decision is made or the initial conditions of the financial model change.

Principles of financial modeling

In order for the model to meet these requirements, certain rules must be followed when constructing it. In world practice, the rules of financial modeling are called best practice modeling, gold modeling standards and other terms. These rules are the basis of various techniques, for example, FAST modeling or SMART modeling. All these methods are based on simple, intuitive principles, following which allows you to create a high-quality financial model. All these principles can be grouped into three large groups:

  • the financial model must be transparent;
  • the financial model must be flexible;
  • the financial model should be clear.

Transparency of the financial model– this is the user’s ability to understand the source data, the procedure and calculation formulas, to understand and check how the reported values ​​are obtained. Any financial model needs to be tested and verified using simple examples, large numbers and absurd meanings. The more complex and closed the code of a financial model, the less transparent it is. As long as the model is opaque, it is similar to Pandora's box, the results of its calculations should be treated with a certain degree of doubt and the results should be checked alternative ways. The costs of using an opaque financial model include alternative calculations, additional checks, and the risk of errors in the calculation formulas. This leads to the fact that, due to the principle of economic feasibility, the efficiency of the financial model is reduced.

Flexibility of the financial model– this is the ability to quickly make changes to the initial conditions and obtain a new result without significant time expenditure. For example, in a financial model illustrating the tax scenario for the next two to three years, taking into account the development of the company, tax rates, planned sales volumes, margins, payroll and other indicators should be easily changed. If all these indicators are included in the premises and separated from the calculation block, then it will be possible to build many options for the financial model, having started designing only once.

This rule also works for investment projects. In such models, it is highly desirable to include flexible time prerequisites: the timing of the project and each of its stages should be shifted without the need to rebuild the entire model, taking into account seasonality and the schedule for increasing production.

Visibility of the financial model– this is an opportunity to quickly navigate where to enter or change data, where you can see the results of calculations, and quickly understand the result of developments.

To implement this principle, it is necessary to visually separate premises, calculations and results, use graphics to present complex tables, and use a calm color scheme without turning the model into a palette. Users, like the author himself, should be comfortable working with the model; it should not cause irritation with a clutter of data and an abundance of colors.

These financial modeling principles seem extremely simple and straightforward. However, in practice they are often abandoned for the sake of momentary saving of time and effort. Such savings are imaginary, because as a result you have to do the same work again and again, wasting time on it. Creative financial modeling turns into an annoying routine, the employee does not decide complex issues, but rebuilds the same project again and again due to changes in the source data.

Following the principles of transparency, flexibility and visibility, it is possible to create universal financial models that will be a reliable aid in making management decisions.

Financial modeling tools and examples of financial models

Currently, there are quite a lot of financial modeling solutions offered on the market. A significant part of software products was created for assessing investments or forming budgets. A number of such programs are built on the Microsoft Office platform and, in particular, on the basis of Microsoft Excel. This choice is not surprising; Excel, along with its accessibility and prevalence, has impressive technical characteristics: one sheet has more than 1 million rows and 16 billion cells, the number of sheets in a book is limited only by the amount of RAM, performing all mathematical operations in any combination, high accuracy of calculations, processing and calculating dates, text formulas, and so on. In addition, VBA programming can be used to expand standard functionality, use add-ins to expand the potential of pivot tables, automatically load and process information from local and remote databases, and much more. As a result, Excel is a platform not only for developing standard solutions, but also allows you to build financial models for non-standard situations.

Don't worry about people stealing your ideas. If your ideas are any good, you'll have to force them down people's throats. Howard Aiken.

1. What is a “financial model”?

Financial model– a computer model of the cash flows of a company or individual project that simulates past, current, future or projected operating activities in financial estimates. In fact, this is a structured set of calculations that generates options for assessing the financial result by changing the initial parameters.

The basis of the model is numerical data, which characterize operational, financial and investment activities with the required degree of detail. Most models use time, quantity, and cost data.

In other words, the entire activity of the company or the composition of the project is reduced to the form single cash flow, the composition of which increases or decreases, depending on various internal and external factors.

Typically, the model is built on a three-stage principle:


Characteristics of a good financial model:

  • Well structured - easy to understand
  • Transparent calculations - easily verifiable
  • Easy to maintain - easy to change
  • Fit for the task
  • Worth the effort
  • Corresponds to economic logic
  • Maximum automated - does not require additional edits
  • Formulas that are several lines long are not used - do intermediate calculations

2. Why is a financial model created?

A financial model is a “model” of a real business. Since one of the key aspects that investors are interested in is return on investment, first of all, they consider the most important indicators of the project:

  • Reliability of the project (risks of non-return of invested money should be minimal)
  • Deadlines (money must be returned as quickly as possible)
  • Return (the project’s profit should be greater than if the investor had deposited this money in a reliable Swiss bank at 3-5% per annum).

To assess these and other parameters, from the point of view of clarity, flexibility and ease of analysis of various project options, the best solution is a financial model.

3. How is the financial model used?

The financial model, being a “working business model”, allows the user to lose several "lives" project in different economic conditions. This allows you to evaluate different options for the development of events, taking into account various opportunities, risks and the impact of real and potential threats. Moreover, do this without losing real money.

Successfully built, tested and recognized by the investor as acceptable, the financial model can act as basics for writing a business plan and be attached as a justification to an investment application to receive money from a bank or to a feasibility study of a project.

After receiving investments, it is correct to create a new empty financial model into which you should enter data corresponding the real state of affairs.

4. The most common tasks when a model is needed.

In most cases, a model is created to analyze investments (assess the investment attractiveness of a project) and for a comprehensive and balanced consideration of all possible risks of a future project (factors that can interfere, complicate, increase costs, slow down or even stop its progress).

Here are options for other tasks when modeling is used:

  • ROI assessment
  • Expansion / Launch of new production
  • Entering a new market/segment/region
  • Development of sales/branch network
  • Business restructuring
  • Mergers and acquisitions (M&A)
  • Sale of business / assets / direction
  • Justification of the feasibility of the project for investors
  • Advanced risk analysis for the current project, etc.

5. How the financial model works.

The most commonly used and considered the most effective today is simulation method, which reproduces with the required accuracy all processes and monetary settlements, taking into account available resources and settlements with internal and external counterparties.

The basis of the idea of ​​IM is scenario approach, which describes and allows you to compare two, three or more identical projects from different angles, each of which is affected by different factors.

By identifying factors that are unstable in most scenarios, it is possible to judge flexibility And vulnerabilities project.

The greatest effectiveness in financial modeling can be achieved using special software (such as Business Plan Expert, Project Expert, Alt Invest, Prime Expert, etc.).

6. Discounting.

Considering the fact that money has a very definite value, which changes depending on the passage of time and the environment in which it rotates, cash flows appearing in different time periods impossible to compare directly.

To compare cash flows at different times and bring the value of money to a single value (identifying the cost of capital at a certain point in time), modern models use the method discounting.

Discounting method relies on economic indicators, the key of which is discount rate(discount rate). The discount rate is set individually for each project and reflects the profitability of various investment options and the rate of change in the value of money over time.

7. Sequence of steps to receive investment.

  • The emergence of a business idea, a preliminary vision of the future project, time and financial framework, key factors determining its financial attractiveness.
  • Analysis of available data, collection and structuring of missing information, conducting marketing research, describing production and sales schemes, identifying available resources, contractors, etc.
  • Building a financial model, checking the project’s flexibility when various unfavorable conditions. Adjusting the project to make it more sustainable and reduce the risk of non-return on investment.
  • Creation of a business plan, including marketing (descriptive) and economic (calculation) parts.
  • Defending the project to an investor, receiving funds, launching.

8. Uniqueness of each financial model.

Each financial model has its own characteristics and specifics, which arise as a result features of doing business in different industries(for example, in the hotel business an indicator such as “Revenue per room” is used), geographical regions(for example, in Komi - 90% of the cost of products is delivery), in companies of different sizes (for example, Coca-Cola spends up to 45% of profits on advertising) and due to the influence various specific factors.

Such factors may, for example, include political(for example, projects related to the Sochi 2014 Olympics have a higher priority over other projects, with a noticeably lower or even negative profitability), economic(taxes on alcohol are noticeably higher than on bakery products), social, technological and other types of factors.

9. Financial model indicators.

The financial model contains many initial factors on the basis of which the analysis and modeling of future cash flows is carried out:

  • Initial data(products, contractors, processes, dates, production and sales methods, supply volumes, taxes, etc.)
  • Drivers, key design indicators of the project(market share, profit share, ratios, occupancy rates, “average checks”, etc.)
  • Financial(capitalization, liquidity, profitability, turnover, capital structure, etc.)
  • Investment(efficiency, sustainability, earnings per share, dividend coverage ratio, etc.)
  • Industry or specific(revenue per turnover in sq.m., average cost of a check, cost of an increase in a unit of raw material reserves, kilowatt-hours per unit of production, cost of attracting one client, cost of a cubic meter of construction, costs of transporting one ton of cargo, average revenue per hotel room and etc.)

10. Financial model indicators.

12.Products for financial modeling.

Financial modeling products are divided into:

  • Open(Alt Invest) – all formulas are “open” and available for editing. Pros: based on Excel, does not require knowledge of modeling, simple. Minuses: high risk of errors, searching for problem areas takes a lot of time, with a large amount of data they begin to work slowly, few functions, simple, impossible to build three-dimensional models.
  • Open with protection(Prime Expert) – all formulas are open, but protected from corrections. Pros: it is impossible to “spoil” the model, it is possible to build a three-dimensional model, a large number of functions, the ability to use included spreadsheets. Minuses: more expensive and more difficult to learn.
  • Closed(Business Plan Expert, Project Expert, Comfar, Inec) – the formulas are “hardwired” into the program, it is impossible to correct them with your own. This is a plus and a minus.

13. Typical mistakes when building models.

  1. Failure to comply with the designated structure of the model - sheets with input data contain calculations, sheets with calculations contain constants
  2. Failure to comply with the principle of uniformity of formulas on one line - formulas cannot be extended
  3. Calculations contain references to empty cells
  4. The model contains hidden rows and columns
  5. Calculations contain links to other files
  6. The model contains system error messages
  7. Iteration mode is enabled, calculations contain array formulas

An example of requirements for a financial model based on the requirements of VneshEconomBank (excerpts)

1. General requirements.

No part of the financial model should be hidden, protected, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible for review or modification.

The financial model must have a clear and logical structure. Initial data (assumptions), financial forecasts and interim calculations, and the results of financial forecasts must be presented sequentially; these elements must be visually separated from each other, but interconnected by calculation formulas.

The financial model must allow for changes to the original assumptions and automatically adjust financial forecasts if such changes are made. The model must be constructed in such a way as to allow analysis of the sensitivity of the results of financial forecasts to changes in all model assumptions.

If the financial measures produced in a financial model are based on one or more underlying models, it is necessary to provide dynamic relationships between these underlying models.

The financial model must have a sufficient degree of detail, that is, contain breakdowns by main types of products, regions, production units, periods, income and cost items, etc. At the same time, the financial model must provide information in an integrated form, namely, it must contain a forecast profit and loss statement, a forecast balance sheet, and a forecast cash flow statement interconnected with each other.

Forecast forms financial statements and interim reports should not contradict each other.

The model must explicitly indicate:

  • Project lifespan
  • Duration of the forecast period (should not be less than the discounted payback period of the project and the loan repayment period)
  • Duration of the post-forecast period and the starting point of the forecast period
  • Forecast step (for the investment stage - one quarter, in the case of monthly seasonality - one month; for the operational stage - one year)
  • Type of cash flows (nominal, real)
  • Final Cash Flow Currency
  • Type of discount rate and method of its calculation
  • Methodology for calculating the final cost (indicating the expected growth rate in the post-forecast period)
  • Macroeconomic data (forecasts for inflation, exchange rates, real wage growth, etc.)
  • Forecast of capital investments, sales volume and production volume (as well as other quantitative factors), etc.

Mandatory indicators:

  • Forecast of prices/tariffs for finished products/services
  • Resource consumption rates per unit of output
  • Forecast of prices for main raw materials and materials and other costs that make up an important share in the cost
  • Personnel cost forecast
  • Forecast of conditionally fixed costs
  • Terms of settlements with counterparties (deferments and prepayments for settlements with suppliers and customers, budget, personnel)
  • Turnover standards
  • Information on taxes and other obligatory payments (duties, compulsory insurance contributions)
  • Prerequisites for accounting policies (policies for depreciation, capitalization of costs, creation of reserves, revenue recognition)
  • Forecast financing structure, conditions for debt financing (interest rates, schedule for receiving and servicing debt)
  • Data stock market to calculate the discount rate
  • Other initial data and prerequisites important for the given industry and type of project, etc.

Forecast income statement must be compiled on an accrual basis and contain, among other things, the following financial indicators: revenue, gross profit, gross margin, EBITDA (operating earnings before depreciation, interest and amortization), EBIT (operating earnings before interest and amortization). taxes), net profit, net profitability. If, due to industry or other characteristics of the project, these indicators are not presented, the fact and reasons for their absence should be indicated in the description of the financial model.

Forecast cash flow statement should include cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities. In the case of proposed debt financing, free cash flows before debt service (CFADS) should be provided as a reference.

Financial and investment indicators, which must be mandatory:

  • Investment attractiveness(NPV, DPBP, IRRequity)
  • Financial stability(Interest coverage ratio, EBIT/interest, Debt Service Coverage Ratio, DSCR, Loan Life Coverage Ratio, LLCR)
  • Debt load(Debt/Equity, Debt/EBITDA, Debt/CFADS, PLCR (Project Life Coverage Ratio), RLCR (Reserve Life Coverage Ratio)
  • Liquidity(current liquidity indicator - current ratio and quick liquidity - quick ratio)
  • Profitability(return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), return on sales (ROS), return on investment (capital) (ROCE)
  • Turnover(accounts receivable, accounts payable, inventories).

For sustainability assessments financial indicators apply sensitivity analysis method– assessing the degree of impact of changes in key sensitivity factors on the results of financial forecasts. If sensitivity analysis does not measure/illustrate individual risks, other methods are used, including break-even point calculation, Monte Carlo method, scenario analysis, factor analysis and so on.

TO key sensitivity factors These include assumptions (initial data) of the financial model, the actual values ​​of which during the implementation of the project (due to the impossibility of their accurate assessment or their inherent volatility) may significantly deviate from the values ​​included in the financial model. In particular, typical sensitivity factors include:

  • Prices for finished products and tariffs for services;
  • Sales volume (intensity of operation, number of buyers/users);
  • Volume of capital expenditures;
  • Delays in putting an investment facility into operation and reaching its design capacity;
  • Prices for basic raw materials and materials, fuel, labor resources;
  • The amount of fixed operating costs;
  • Discount rate;
  • Forecast inflation rates;
  • Exchange rates, etc.

It is imperative to conduct a sensitivity analysis to changes in the discount rate, product sales price, price of a key resource and sales volume.

In fact, there is nothing complicated about financial modeling. At any stage of business development, it will be useful to do this “exercise.” Let's figure out what a financial model is, why it is needed, and what principles should be kept in mind when drawing it up.

What it is?

A financial model is a set (system) of interrelated indicators that characterize your business. The financial model of a project can be called any financial calculations, “estimating the cost,” forecasting revenue or profit, etc. In other words, after you have decided on the format of your business, you will immediately have a desire to take a calculator (and if you are serious, open Excel) and figure out in numbers how your project will develop. Thus, a financial model is a reflection of your business model in quantitative numbers (money, interest, pieces, etc.).

Why is it needed?

  1. Forecasting financial indicators (revenue, profit, cash flow, asset value, etc.);
  2. Project evaluation (for example, according to the DCF model);
  3. Analysis of the company’s efficiency and its financial stability (for example, you can calculate the interest coverage ratio and estimate what loan conditions you need under the basic scenario of project development);
  4. The ability to consider distinct project development scenarios (for example, changing the conversion or churn rate i Customer churn rate. and see how this affected the annual profit);
  5. And structure your business vision.

Do I need to immediately send out the financial model to all the investors I know?

No need. The financial model is, first and foremost, good for you. It is possible that an investor will only look at it if he finds you attractive - from the point of view of the business, the market and your team.

What should a standard financial model look like?

For most Internet projects, at a very early stage of development, it is enough to model operating activities and cash flow (or a profit and loss statement, as you prefer). Modeling is most often done in Excel, of course. If your business involves significant cash gaps or investments in tangible assets, then some knowledge will be required.

The extended version of the financial model consists of the following blocks: operating model, profit and loss statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement, as well as other separate calculations (attracting financing, company valuation, calculation of the cost of debt obligations and fixed assets, etc. .).

Operating model- this is a direct reflection (estimate) of your business model. For example, you assume that every month you will attract 100 leads through different channels with a conversion to paying customers of 10%, respectively, paying customers - 10, and with an average check... And so on, every month - with a certain growth rate. The operating model is a fundamental part of your model; almost all financial indicators will be built from it.

Cash flow statement is the actual cash flow or outflow that occurs when you start your business. This statement differs from an “income statement” in that it does not show items that are not reflected in your bank account. For example, depreciation and receivables will not appear on the cash flow statement (at least if direct way submission of these reports).

Gains and losses report- these are the financial results of your activities for a certain period (month, quarter, year). The form includes the metrics you're familiar with: revenue, miscellaneous expenses, gross profit, interest payments, taxes, and net income.

Balance sheet - this is a summary of information about the value of property, liabilities and capital of your company at a specific point in time (end of month, end of quarter, end of year). The balance sheet consists of:

  • Assets - what you bought;
  • Pasivov - what did you buy with?

There are many examples on the Internet of how all three reporting forms should look.

Where to begin?

It is important to structure your business vision so that it can be clearly depicted in Excel spreadsheets.

  1. Schematically depict your business model on a piece of paper - how you are going to earn money and what you are going to spend on;
  2. Structure all your sources of income, acquisition channels, expenses, etc.;
  3. Make a chain between your indicators that lead to revenue, expenses and other financial indicators. For example, you have 3 acquisition channels (SEO, manual, SMM), two types of services - which means two sources of income (for example, website promotion and its development), and, in accordance with the two types of sales, you have different costs. Based on your historical data, you distribute all paying leads into two types of services, multiply by the average check and get revenue.
  4. This takes you to the income statement. Then everything is very individual.

When can “these tables” be called a financial model?

Here general rules, which would be good to keep in mind when doing financial modeling:

  1. The model must be understandable. It should be read and understood by both your internal and external specialists with ease and without unnecessary questions. Therefore, it would not be superfluous to write to her brief instructions and a glossary of abbreviations.
  2. The model must be structured. Before you start making it, decide on the main blocks that you are going to model.
  3. Before you sit down to write a financial model, ask yourself: “Why am I doing this?” It is very important to understand your goal. The final appearance of your model depends on it. (What are the goals - see the answer to the question “Why do we need a financial model?”.)
  4. Write the units of measurement for each line.
  5. Highlight the prerequisites: always in color, or better yet, on a separate sheet. Prerequisites are the indicators from which you will build - and only they are filled with hard work (!). For example, conversion to purchase or sales growth rate. This is done so that it is convenient to change one parameter and see how financial results change.
  6. Do not write large formulas in one cell. It’s better to create a separate block with calculations, where all the logic of the calculations will be clear. Ideal: one cell - one iteration.
  7. Be able to justify all the premises and find an explanation for the results that you get, since the reader will always have questions.
  8. Summarize, analyze the results. Otherwise, why did you build a financial model?

Following the success of the previous course in June, the CFA is holding its last 2-day intensive course for investment banking professionals and financial analysts on June 30 and July 1:

Business valuation methods
using financial models

Previous Course Report

You will learn:
BASED ON HISTORICAL DATA AND OTHER FACTORS
DETERMINE THE VALUE OF A BUSINESS USING VARIOUS VALUATION METHODS

Registration link -- cfavaluation.qrickets.ru
To pay by bank transfer, please contact Kirill Murakhtanov at or by phone +7-495-761-31-07

THE FIRST DAY

  • Building a financial model based on historical data.
  • General modeling principles and financial model blocks
  • Separate analysis of balance sheet and PL items for the purpose of forecasting. Blocks: Revenue, OPex, Depreciation, Taxes on financial results (deferred taxes), capital investments, working capital, VAT, interest.
  • Direct and indirect statement of cash flows. Main drivers of growth.

SECOND DAY

  • Company value. Basic assessment methods (based on the constructed model)
  • Determination of cost. Factors influencing cost.
  • Assessment methods. Flow, terminal value.
  • Assessment methods:
    1. DDM (theoretical justification + calculation)
    2. Residual Value + EVA
    3. Relative valuation (financial and operational)

The following topics will be covered during the course:

MODELING

  • The purpose and objectives of the financial model. Types of accounting information and types of models
  • The structure and logic of building a simple financial model in MS Excel.
  • Basic rules for modeling in MS Excel
  • Methodology for analysis and forecasting of the financial model
  • Analysis historical information and identifying the main drivers of the model
  • Forecasting PL: Forecasting revenue, cost, SGA. Analysis of conditionally variable and conditionally fixed expenses
  • Forecasting working capital (considering the company's cash cycle) through days of turnover
  • Forecasting turnover by fixed assets, capital investments and depreciation
  • Forecasting income tax, property tax and VAT turnover
  • Constructing a Cash Flow Statement using the indirect method
  • Relationships between PL, BS and CF. Balancing the model
  • Basic analytical ratios (Credit, Liquidity, Profitability, Efficiency of Asset Utilization, Return on Invested Capital, Growth). The meaning of each coefficient
  • Case No. 1. Foundry. Analysis of historical management financial statements, drivers and operating ratios. Model building by users. Scripts. Sensitivity tables

GRADE

  • Basic valuation methods (DCF, Comparative, Restorative (cost)
  • The concept of Enterprise value, the components of this concept (Common Equity, Minority Interest, Preferred Equity, Net Debt). Additional adjustments to Enterprise value
  • Theoretical justification of the DDP method
  • Various methods for estimating DCF (FCFF, FCFE, EVA, Abnormal Earnings)
  • Analysis of the FCFF method. Obtaining FCFF and Enterprise value based on forecast financial data in various ways.
  • Discount rate WACC. Application of CAPM theory to obtain the cost of equity capital. Algorithm for obtaining the share capital rate for Russian public and private companies.
  • Analysis of the FCFE method. Deriving FCFE and Common Equity values ​​from projected financial data in a variety of ways.
  • Analysis of the EVA method. Theoretical justification of the method. Obtaining Noplat, Invested Capital and EVA value based on forecast financial data.
  • Analysis of the Abnormal Earnings (Residual Value) method. Theoretical justification of the method. Calculation of Common Equity value based on projected financial data Application for valuation of financial assets
  • Comparative assessment. The main pros and cons of the method. How to choose comparable companies.
  • Basic financial and operating multipliers. An example of calculating multipliers for Russian companies. Multiple migration, dependence on growth and profitability.
  • Case 1. Foundry. Estimating the value of the company and the value of share capital using the studied DCF methods and using multipliers.
  • Case 2. Modeling based on IFRS reporting of a public Russian company.
  • Difficulties associated with accounting and forecasting provisions and deferred taxes. Evaluation by various methods, comparison and analysis of discrepancies with the company’s public quotations.

TEACHERS

Main teacher: Denis Sitnikov, CFA

    Over ten years of investment and corporate finance practice with top multinationals

    Executive MBA in Finance and Investments, Duke University (2011)