Cognitive distortions in psychology. Objective bias

Confirmation bias is quite interesting. cognitive distortion; it is his fault that a person continues to believe in a method that actually does not work, continues to consider a hypothesis that is actually false to be proven. Under the influence of confirmatory distortion, hypotheses become self-confirming hypotheses, self-perpetuating beliefs arise on their basis, and erroneous beliefs become chronic, inveterate, and “inoperable.”

To understand what a confirmatory bias is, let's look at the following experiment conducted by psychologist Peter Wason (he is the one who coined the term “confirmatory bias”).

The subject was presented with a sequence of numbers: 2, 4, 6. And he had to, after making several assumptions, determine what rule underlies this sequence. The subject made his assumptions by composing sequences of three numbers, which, in the subject’s opinion, corresponded to the desired rule. The experimenter answered only “suitable” if the sequence corresponded to the rule, or “not suitable” if it did not correspond to the rule.

After several trials, the subject had to formulate a rule. After this, the experiment was completed. Let's look at all this using a specific example.

Experimenter: Here is a sequence of numbers: 2, 4, 6. Determine what rule is behind this sequence by suggesting sequences of three numbers that meet this rule. Subject: 8, 10, 12. Experimenter: Fits. Subject: 5, 7, 9. Experimenter: Fits. Subject: 11, 13, 15. Experimenter: Fits. Subject: Oh, well, everything is clear, the rule is this: each subsequent number must be 2 more than the previous one.

It would seem that everything is obvious, but the subject’s answer is incorrect. The correct answer is: each number simply must be greater than the previous one.

As we can see, the subject was simply looking for confirmation of his hypothesis, instead of formulating alternative hypotheses and testing them too. What alternative hypotheses could there be? - the reader will ask. And, for example, these:

• each subsequent number is greater than the previous one - a true rule;
• each subsequent number differs from the previous one by 2 (not necessarily more);
• every third number is the sum of the previous two (2+4=6);
• each subsequent number is different from the previous one;
• average is average arithmetic first and the last one ((2+6)/2=4);
• etc.

Why don't subjects test these hypotheses? Because people have a confirmation bias.

Confirmatory bias naturally occurs not only when testing hypotheses involving numbers. Let's look at an experiment showing how the confirmatory distortion manifests itself in the field of social categorization, people's assessment of each other.

In an experiment by Mark Snyder, it was found that if you ask a person to test whether an interlocutor is an extrovert, the subject will ask questions that will confirm extroversion:

• “What would you do to liven up the party?”
• “What situations do you look for when you want to make new friends?”
• “In what situations are you most talkative?”

These questions end up affecting a person in such a way that he appears to be an extrovert. At the same time, like the person testing the “2, 4, 6” hypothesis, the person testing extroversion is convinced that he is an extrovert and does not consider an alternative hypothesis. Accordingly, he does not try to ask questions that would falsify a person's extroversion and confirm his introversion.

If the subject tests a person for introversion, then he asks questions that confirm introversion:

• “What factors prevent you from opening up to people?”
• “In what situations would you like to be more sociable?”
• “What exactly do you not like about noisy parties?”

And again the same problems.

Firstly, the subject does not test the alternative hypothesis (does not falsify the main one).

Secondly, he asks leading questions that make the person appear exactly who the subject thinks he should be.

By the way, as further experiments by Mark Snyder confirmed, the confirmatory distortion is quite stable: subjects continue to act within the framework of the positive testing strategy (confirmatory strategy) even if you pay the subjects for the most accurate assessment of the interlocutor or directly ask them to be as accurate and careful as possible when checking fidelity.

It should be noted that it would be useful if socionics adherents recognized themselves in Snyder’s subjects and understood how “socionic typing” is subject to confirmatory distortion (and, obviously, many other distortions).

Manifestations of confirmatory distortion are not limited to the fact that a person does not test alternative hypotheses and does not look for alternative explanations. The problem is more global: a person is generally predisposed in favor of his own hypotheses and is biased in testing hypotheses that he likes. A person tends to confirm his hypotheses, while he tends to refute the hypotheses on which views that are unacceptable to him are based. In the latter case we are talking about the so-called disconfirmation bias.

The influence of confirmation bias is observed in a variety of areas of human life: in jury trials, in financial decisions, in choosing treatment, in clinical diagnostics etc. and so on. The confirmation bias is one of four cognitive distortions (along with naive realism, illusory causation, and illusion of control) that underlie the illusion of psychotherapy effectiveness. And of course, confirming distortion is a real gift for inventors of pseudoscience and inventors of various pseudoscientific recipes, because thanks to confirming distortion, an adherent of pseudoscience will always be able to own experience make sure that pseudoscience “works.”

LITERATURE

1. Lilienfeld S.O., Ritschel L.A., Lynn S.J., Cautin R.L., Latzman R.D. Why Ineffective Psychotherapies Appear to Work: A Taxonomy of Causes of Spurious Therapeutic Effectiveness // Perspectives on Psychological Science. - 2014. - Vol. 9(4). - Pp. 355-387.
2. Snyder, M., Swann, W. B., Jr. Hypothesis-Testing Processes in Social Interaction // Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. - 1978. - Vol. 36. - No. 11. - Pp. 1202-1212.
3. Wason, Peter C. On the failure to eliminate hypotheses in a conceptual task // Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology (Psychology Press). - 1960. - No. 12(3). - Pp. 129-140.

The only thing that prevents us from reaching the limit of our capabilities is our own thoughts. We are our own worst enemies.

Usually the process is figuratively represented as a leisurely climb up the stairs, step by step. In fact, it consists of jumps and is more like jumping between floors on a trampoline. In my life, such leaps occur due to changes in the very way of thinking: I look back and evaluate the whole picture as a whole, I change my attitude towards something. By the way, such moments happen infrequently, they are scattered over time.

To cope with the flow of information and external stimuli that hits our brain, we unconsciously begin to think in stereotypes and use heuristic, intuitive methods for solving problems.

Writer Ash Read likened the heuristic to a bike lane for the mind, which allows it to work without having to maneuver between cars or risk getting hit. Unfortunately, most of the things that we think we take completely deliberately are actually taken unconsciously.

The big problem is that we think according to heuristic patterns when faced with an important choice. Although in this situation, on the contrary, deep thinking is necessary.

The most harmful heuristic patterns are those that prevent us from seeing the path to change. They change our perception of reality and push us to take long stairs when we need a springboard. We offer you a list of five cognitive distortions that are killing your resolve. Overcoming them is the first step towards change.

1. Confirmation bias

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Only in an ideal world are all our thoughts rational, logical and unbiased. In reality, most of us believe what we want to believe.

You might call it stubbornness, but psychologists have another term for this phenomenon: confirmation bias. This is the tendency to seek and interpret information in a way that confirms an idea that you hold close to your heart.

Let's give an example. In the 60s, Dr. Peter Wason conducted an experiment in which subjects were shown three numbers and asked to guess the rule known to the experimenter that explained this sequence. These numbers were 2, 4, 6, so subjects often proposed the rule “each subsequent number increases by two.” To confirm the rule, they offered their own sequences of numbers, for example 6, 8, 10 or 31, 33, 35. Everything seems to be correct?

Not really. Only one out of five subjects guessed the real rule: three numbers in ascending order of their values. Typically, Wauseon students would come up with a false idea (adding two every time) and then search only in that direction to get evidence to support their assumption.

Despite its apparent simplicity, Wason's experiment says a lot about human nature: We tend to seek only information that confirms our beliefs, not information that disproves them.

Confirmation bias is inherent in everyone, including doctors, politicians, people creative professions and entrepreneurs, even when the cost of a mistake is especially high. Instead of asking ourselves what we are doing and why (the most important question), we often become biased and rely too much on initial judgment.

2. Anchor effect

The first decision is not always the best, but our mind clings to the initial information that literally takes over us.

The anchoring effect, or anchoring effect, is the tendency to greatly overestimate the first impression (anchor information) during decision making. This is clearly evident when assessing numerical values: The estimate is biased towards the initial guess. Simply put, we always think relative to something rather than objectively.

Research shows that the anchoring effect can explain everything from why you don't get what you want (if you initially ask for more, the final number will be high, and vice versa) to why you believe stereotypes about people whom you see for the first time in your life.

An illustrative study by psychologists Mussweiler and Strack showed that the anchoring effect works even with initially implausible numbers. They asked participants in their experiment, divided into two groups, to answer the question of how old Mahatma Gandhi was when he died. And first, each group was asked an additional question as an anchor. The first: “Did he die before he was nine years old or after?”, and the second: “Did this happen before he was 140 years old or after?” As a result, the first group assumed that Gandhi died at the age of 50, and the second - at 67 (in fact, he died at the age of 87).

The anchor question with the number 9 caused the first group to give a significantly lower number than the second group, which started from a deliberately inflated number.

It is extremely important to understand the significance of the initial information (whether it is plausible or not) before making a final decision. After all, the first information we learn about something will affect how we treat it in the future.

3. The effect of joining the majority

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The choice of the majority directly influences our thinking, even if it contradicts our personal beliefs. This effect is known as the herd instinct. You have probably heard sayings like “You don’t go to someone else’s monastery with your own rules” or “When in Rome, act like a Roman” - this is precisely the effect of annexation.

This bias can lead us to make bad decisions (for example, going to see a bad but popular movie or eating at a questionable establishment). And at worst it leads to groupthink.

Groupthink is a phenomenon that occurs in a group of people within which conformity or the desire for social harmony leads to the suppression of all alternative opinions.

As a result, the group isolates itself from outside influence. Suddenly it becomes dangerous to disagree and we become our own censors. And as a result, we lose our independence of thinking.

4. Survivor Mistake

Often we go to another extreme: we focus exclusively on stories of people who have achieved success. We're inspired by Michael Jordan, not Kwame Brown or Jonathan Bender. We praise Steve Jobs and forget about Gary Kildall.

Problem this effect is that we focus on 0.0001% successful people, and not on the majority. This leads to a one-sided assessment of the situation.

For example, we may think that being an entrepreneur is easy because only successful people publish books about their businesses. But we know nothing about those who failed. This is probably why all sorts of online gurus and experts have become so popular, promising to reveal “the only path to success.” You just need to remember that the path that worked once will not necessarily lead you to the same result.

5. Loss aversion

Once we have made our choice and are on our way, other cognitive distortions come into play. Probably the worst of these is loss aversion, or the endowment effect.

The loss aversion effect was popularized by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, who discovered that we would rather avoid even a small loss than focus on the benefits we might receive.

The fear of a small loss can keep a person from participating in the game, even if a fabulous win is possible. Kahneman and Tversky conducted an experiment with a very ordinary mug. People who didn't have it were willing to pay about $3.30 for it, and those who did have it were willing to part with it for only $7.

Consider how this effect might affect you if you... Are you afraid to think outside the box for fear of losing something? Does the fear outweigh what you can gain?

So, there is a problem. Where is the solution?

All cognitive distortions have one thing in common: they arise from an unwillingness to take a step back and look at the whole picture.

We prefer to work with something familiar and do not want to look for mistakes in our plans. Positive thinking has its benefits. But if you make important decisions blindly, you're unlikely to make the best choice possible.

Before making a big decision, make sure you are not the victim of cognitive biases. To do this, take a step back and ask yourself:

• Why do you think it is necessary to do this?
• Are there any counterarguments to your opinion? Are they wealthy?
• Who influences your beliefs?
• Do you follow other people's opinions because you truly believe in them?
• What will you lose if you make this decision? What will you buy?

There are literally hundreds of different cognitive biases, and without them our brains simply could not function. But if you don’t analyze why you think this way and not otherwise, it’s easy to fall into stereotyped thinking and forget how to think for yourself.

Personal growth never comes easy. This hard work, to which you need to devote yourself wholeheartedly. Don't let your future suffer just because not thinking is easier.

All of these worlds belong to JK Rowling, with the exception of Jupiter's moon Europa, so don't try to write fanfiction that takes place on Europa.

"Let me warn you that challenging my abilities is a dangerous proposition and could make your life much stranger."

Nobody asked for help, that's the problem. They simply walked, chatted, chewed or looked at one point while their parents exchanged rumors. It’s strange, but no one was reading, that is, she couldn’t just sit down next to her and open the book too. Even when she boldly took the initiative and began to re-read Hogwarts: A History for the third time, no one followed her example.

She only met people by helping them with homework or with anything else, and didn’t know any other way. She didn’t consider herself shy, rather the opposite, but if they didn’t turn to her with a request, like: “I forgot how to divide into a column,” then she was very embarrassed to go up to someone and say... but what to say ? Unknown. It's funny, but it seems no one has yet compiled a list of standard phrases for such cases. She never saw the point in the dating process. Why should she take everything into her own hands if there are two people involved in the process? And why did adults never help in this matter? I wish some girl would come up to her and say, “Hermione, the teacher told me to be friends with you.”

But let's be clear - Hermione Granger, sitting in the empty compartment of the last carriage and leaving the door open in case someone wanted to talk, did not feel lonely, did not feel sad, did not lose heart, did not become limp, did not despair and did not dwell on her problems. She enjoyed reading Hogwarts: A History for the third time, although she was a little annoyed by the general absurdity of the world order.

The door between the carriages slammed, steps and a strange rustling were heard outside. Hermione put the book down, stood up and looked out the door in case someone needed help. In the corridor there was a boy in a robe, who was most likely a first or second year student. The scarf wrapped around his head made him look rather stupid. Next to him stood a small chest. Just at that moment the boy knocked on another compartment with the words: “Excuse me, please, can I ask you a question?” His voice sounded a little muffled because of the scarf.

There was no way of knowing the answer that followed, but when the boy opened the door, Hermione was pretty sure she heard him correctly ask, “Does anyone know the six flavors of quarks or where I can find first-year Hermione Granger?”

After the boy closed the compartment door, Hermione said:

Can I help you?

The head wrapped in a scarf turned to her and said:

Only if you name the six flavors of quarks or tell me how to find first-year student Hermione Granger.

Top, bottom, weird, enchanted, true, lovely, and why are you looking for Hermione Granger?

From such a distance it was difficult to judge with certainty, but the girl thought she saw a wide grin under the scarf.

“Oh, so you are first-year Hermione Granger,” said a muffled voice. - On the train to Hogwarts, of course.

The boy headed towards her compartment, the chest rustling behind him.

Technically, all I had to do was look for you, but I should probably talk to you, or invite you to my group, or get an important magical item from you, or find out that Hogwarts was built on the ruins of an ancient temple, or something like that. PC or NPC - that is the question.

Hermione opened her mouth, but still couldn't find a single answer to... that "something" she just heard. Meanwhile, the boy managed to walk past her into the compartment, look around, nod with satisfaction and sit down on the empty bench opposite. His chest followed, increased threefold in size and somehow even slightly obscenely pressed against her own.

Please sit down,” the boy said, simultaneously removing the scarf from his head, “and, if it’s not too much trouble, close the door.” I don't bite until I get bitten.

The mere thought that the boy considered it possible for her to be afraid in this situation was enough to make her slam the door with unnecessary force. She turned and saw a child's face with bright, laughing green eyes and a dark red scar on her forehead that seemed vaguely familiar to her. However, now she was thinking about something completely different.

I didn't say my name was Hermione Granger!

And I didn't say that you said your name was Hermione Granger. I said you are Hermione Granger. If you want to ask how I found out, then I hasten to assure you: I know everything. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen, this is Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres, or Harry Potter, for short. I’ll assume that this name, for a change, doesn’t mean anything to you.

Hermione finally made the connection. He has a lightning bolt-shaped scar on his forehead.

Harry Potter! You have been written about in A Modern History of Magic, The Rise and Fall of the Dark Arts, and Great Events of the Twentieth Century Wizarding World.

For the first time in her life, she met a person from a book, and it was quite an unusual feeling.

The boy blinked several times:

About me? Oh, of course, about me... what a strange thought.

Didn't you know? - asked Hermione. - If I were you, I would find out everything I could.

The answer was quite dry:

Miss Hermione Granger, less than seventy-two hours ago I found myself in Diagon Alley and learned that I was famous. I bought books for two days. You can be sure that I’m going to find out everything I can,” the boy hesitated. - What exactly is written about me?

Hermione tried to remember. She didn't expect anyone to check how much she knew about these books, so she only read them once. But, since it was only a month ago, their contents did not have time to disappear from my mind.

You are the only one to survive the Killing Curse, which is why they call you the Boy Who Lived. You were born on July 31, 1980. Your parents are James and Lily Potter, nee Evans. On October 31, 1981, the Dark Lord, He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, although I don’t know why he shouldn’t, attacked your house, the location of which was given out by Sirius Black, although it is unknown why they decided that it was him. You were found alive in the ruins, next to the burnt remains of You-Know-Who's body and a scar on your forehead. The Chief Sorcerer of the Wizengamot, Albus Percival Wulfric Brian Dumbledore, has hidden you somewhere. "The Rise and Fall of the Dark Ones" states that you survived because of your mother's love, that your scar contains all the magical powers of the Dark Lord, and that the centaurs fear you, but "Great Events of the Twentieth Century Wizarding World" makes no mention of this, and " Modern history magic" warns that many of the most incredible theories are associated with your personality.

Harry listened with his mouth open.

Didn't they tell you to find Harry Potter on the train to Hogwarts?

No,” Hermione answered. - Who said about me?

Professor McGonagall, and I think I understand why. Hermione, do you have an eidetic memory?

Hermione shook her head.

Not photographic. I always dreamed that she would be like this, but I have to read books five times to learn them by heart.

Is it true? - the boy squeezed out. - I need to see for myself, do you mind? This doesn't mean I don't trust you, but as they say, trust but verify. There is no point in guessing when you can do an experiment.

Hermione smiled smugly. She loved tests.

The boy put his hand into his pouch and, saying: “Magic decoctions and potions of Arsenius Jigger,” pulled out the said book.

Suddenly, Hermione wanted more than anything to have a pouch like that.

Harry Potter opened the tome halfway and began to read aloud:

If you need to make Sharp Eye oil …

I can see everything from here!

The boy tilted the book, hiding the contents from her eyes, and flipped through a couple of pages:

If you were going to brew a potion of Spider Tenacity, what ingredient would you add after the acromantula web?

It is necessary to wait until the potion becomes the color of the shadow of a cloudless dawn with the sun hidden behind the horizon at an angle of eight degrees and eight minutes, counting from the top point of the solar circle. Then stir eight times against the sun and once against the sun and add eight drops of unicorn snot.

The boy slammed the book shut and stuffed it into his pouch, which swallowed it with a quiet purr.

Well, well, well, well, well, well. I should be happy to make you an offer, Miss Granger.

Offer? - Hermione asked suspiciously. Girls shouldn't listen to something like that. At the same time, she noticed one strange thing about the boy (well, one of the strange things): it seems that the people from the books even speak in books. Quite an amazing discovery.

Harry Potter reached into his pouch again, said, “Can of soda,” and pulled out a bright green cylinder and handed it to her.

By any chance, would you like to drink?

Hermione politely took the drink. She even seemed to feel thirsty.

Thank you very much. Was this your proposal? - she clarified, opening the jar.

The boy coughed.

No,” he answered and, after waiting until the girl started drinking, he added, “I want you to help me take over the universe.”

Hermione finished drinking and lowered the can.

Thanks, no. I'm on the side of good.

The boy looked at her in surprise, as if he expected a different answer.

Well, it sounded a little pompous, of course,” he said. - I mean something like Bacon's plan, not political power. “Achieving all possible benefits” and the like. I want to spend experimental studies spells, determine the laws behind them, make magic the domain scientific knowledge, merge the worlds of wizards and Muggles, improve the quality of life everywhere, advance humanity centuries forward, reveal the secret of immortality, colonize solar system, explore the galaxy and, most importantly, understand what the hell is going on here, because everything that is happening around is absolutely unthinkable.

This already sounded more interesting.

The boy stared at her in disbelief:

- AND? Is this not enough?

And what do you want from me? - Hermione clarified.

So that you can help me with my research, of course. With your encyclopedic memory and my intelligence and rationality, we will instantly realize Bacon’s plan. By “instantly” I mean at least thirty-five years.

He's already starting to get boring.

So far I haven't seen your mind in action. Perhaps I'll let you help me with my research.

There was silence in the compartment.

So, you want me to demonstrate my intelligence, - finally came the answer.

Hermione nodded.

Let me warn you that challenging my abilities is a dangerous proposition and could make your life much stranger.

“Not impressive yet,” Hermione snorted and raised the can of soda to her mouth.

“Maybe this will impress you,” the boy replied. He leaned forward and looked at her intensely. “I experimented a little and discovered that I didn’t need a wand: I could conjure whatever I wanted with a snap of my fingers.”

Hermione was taking another sip at this time. She immediately choked, coughed and spilled bright green liquid. For a completely new robe. On the first day of school.

Oddly enough, the girl screamed. It was a shrill sound, reminiscent of an air raid siren.

Ahh! My clothes!

“Don’t panic,” the boy said calmly. - I can fix everything. Look!

He raised his hand and snapped his fingers.

You... - Hermione looked down at the clothes.

There were still green drops on it, but they disappeared right before our eyes and after a few seconds disappeared completely.

Hermione stared at the boy. He smiled smugly.

Magic without a wand and without words! At his age?! But he received his textbooks only three days ago!

She remembered everything she had read, gasped and recoiled from the boy. All the power of the Dark Lord is in his scar!

I... I... I need to go to the toilet, wait here... - she hastily stood up.

She needs to find an adult and tell her everything.

The smile disappeared from the boy's face.

It's just a trick. Sorry, I didn't mean to scare you.

Her hand froze on the doorknob.

- Focus?!

Yes,” answered Harry Potter. - You asked to demonstrate my intelligence. And, as you know, the right way to impress - to do something impossible. In fact, I can’t do magic without a wand,” he fell silent. - At least, I don't think I can. I didn't check it.

He raised his hand again and snapped his fingers.

Nope, the banana didn't show up.

Hermione was more embarrassed than she had ever been in her life.

And the boy smiled, looking at the expression on her face.

I warned you that challenging my abilities could make your life weirder. Remember this the next time I warn you about something.

But... but,” Hermione stammered. - How did you do it then?

The boy's gaze acquired an appraising, weighing expression that she had never seen on the faces of her peers.

Do you believe that you have all the necessary abilities to carry out Scientific research with me or without me? Then let's see how you investigate the phenomenon that has confused you.

I... - Hermione's head went blank for a second: she loved being tested, but she had never been given such tasks. The girl feverishly tried to remember how scientists act in such cases. The gears quickly began to spin in my head, and my brain issued instructions on how to make a project for a science fair.

Step 1: Formulate a hypothesis.
Step 2: Conduct an experiment to test the hypothesis.
Step 3: Evaluate the results.
Step 4: Make a presentation poster.

First of all, it was necessary to formulate a hypothesis. That is, try to guess what happened.

Fine. My hypothesis is that you placed a spell on my robe to make anything spilled on it disappear.

Okay,” the boy agreed, “is this your answer?”

The shock slowly subsided, and Hermione's mind began to work properly.

Wait, that's not a good idea. I didn't see you touch your wand or cast a spell, so you couldn't enchant the robe.

Harry Potter waited, his face showing no emotion.

But, given how obvious and useful such magic is when applied to clothing, it can be assumed that all the robes were enchanted while still in the store. And you found out about it by spilling something on yourself earlier.

The boy's eyebrows went up.

This is your answer?

No, I have not yet moved on to Step 2: “Conduct an experiment to test the hypothesis.”

The boy smiled and remained silent.

Hermione looked inside the can, which she had previously automatically placed in the cup holder by the window. The remaining liquid occupied approximately a third of its volume.

So,” Hermione continued, “my experiment is to pour soda on my robes and see what happens.” I assume the liquid will disappear. But if this doesn't happen, there will be a stain on the mantle, which I don't want at all.

Then spill it on me,” the boy suggested, “and you won’t have to worry about getting your robe dirty.”

But... - said Hermione. There was something wrong with his sentence, but she didn't know how to formulate her thought.

“I have spare robes in my chest,” Harry reassured.

“But there’s no place to change clothes here,” the girl objected, but she immediately found a solution. - Although I can go out and close the door.

The chest has room to change clothes.

Hermione looked at his chest, which she was beginning to suspect was much more unusual than her own.

Okay, she said. - Since you don’t mind...

She carefully poured some of the green liquid onto the edge of the boy's robes and stared at the stain, trying to remember how long it took for the soda to disappear the first time...

And the stain was gone!

Hermione breathed a sigh of relief, also because the Dark Lord's magical abilities turned out to have nothing to do with it.

Step 3: Assess the results. In this case, it is simply observing the disappearance of the soda.

She decided to omit step 4 (about the poster) completely.

My conclusion is that the robes are enchanted to cleanse themselves.

Not really…

Hermione felt a pang of disappointment. She would really like to feel some other feeling, but even though the boy was not a teacher, the test remained a test, and she failed it, which was always quite painful for her.

(Pretty much everything you need to know about Hermione Granger is that she never lets a mistake stop her, or at least dampen her love of testing.)

The saddest thing,” stated Harry Potter, “is that you probably did everything as it is written in the books.” You formulated a hypothesis that had two solutions: the mantle is enchanted or the mantle is not enchanted. You conducted an experiment and dismissed the possibility that the mantle was not enchanted. But while you are reading not the very best best books, you won't learn how to do research correctly. So that I can get really correct answers, and not just churn out publications in magazines that my father is always complaining about. I'll try to explain without revealing the answer where you went wrong now, and I'll give you another chance.

Hermione was beginning to resent the superiority in the boy's voice. After all, he was the same age as her. But the desire to find out what she did wrong outweighed everything else.

The boy concentrated:

There is a game based on the famous experiment “Task 2-4-6”. The essence of the game is as follows. There is a rule known only to me that certain triplets of numbers obey. 2-4-6 is one example of a three that fits the rule. In general... come on, I’ll write the rule down on a piece of paper, just so you know that it’s fixed, I’ll fold the piece of paper and give it to you. Please don't peek, I already realized that you can read upside down.

Harry Potter said "paper" and "mechanical pencil" to his wallet, and Hermione closed her eyes tightly as he wrote.

“Here,” said the boy, holding a carefully folded piece of paper in his hand. - Put this in your pocket.

Which is what she did.

These are the rules of the game,” he continued. - You tell me three numbers, and if this sequence is described by a rule, then I say “yes,” and otherwise, “no.” I am Nature, the rule is one of my laws, and you study me. You already know that the triple 2-4-6 corresponds to “yes”. When you have done all the tests you want, that is, you have named as many threes as you think necessary, stop and try to guess the rule, and then you can unfold the piece of paper and see whether you are right or wrong. Is the essence of the game clear?

Of course, yes,” Hermione replied.

“4-6-8,” she began.

Yes,” the boy answered.

The answer suggested itself, but the solution turned out to be too easy, and Hermione checked a few more threes:

Minus 3, minus 1, plus 1.

All that remained was to say the answer:

The rule is that each next number from the three is two more than the previous one.

Now, suppose I told you,” the boy said, “that this test is more difficult than it seems, and only twenty percent of adults find the correct answer.”

Hermione frowned. Where did she miss? And suddenly I realized that I still needed to check.

2-5-8! - she said triumphantly.

Correct answer: the numbers in three increase by the same amount each time. It doesn't have to be a two.

“Very good,” the boy nodded, “take out the piece of paper and see if it’s so.”

Hermione took the piece of paper from her pocket and unfolded it.

Three real numbers in ascending order, from smallest to largest.

The girl was dumbfounded. She had a distinct feeling of some terrible injustice towards her. Harry Potter was a dirty, disgusting cheater and liar. But during the game, all his answers were correct.

What was happening to you now is called “positive bias,” the boy said. - You had a rule in your head, and you were thinking about triplets that would fit this rule. You didn't try to find a three, the answer to which would be "no". You didn't get a single "no" at all, so the rule could easily have been "any three numbers." People generally prefer to conduct experiments that will confirm their hypotheses rather than those that will disprove them. You have almost the same error. One must learn to look at the negative side of things, peering into the darkness. In this experiment, only twenty percent of adults reach the correct answer. The majority invents fantastically complex hypotheses and are absolutely confident in the correctness of their version. Especially after numerous experiments that confirmed their expectations. Now would you like to try to return to the original task?

It was clear from his gaze that the real test was only now beginning.

Hermione closed her eyes and tried to concentrate. She was sweating under her robe. She had a strange feeling that this was the most difficult assignment she had ever taken, or even that this was the first time she was actually thinking about the test.

What other experiment could be done? She had a chocolate frog. Maybe try rubbing a piece of it on your robe and see if the chocolate disappears? But this was not like the negative approach the boy was talking about. It was as if she just wanted to confirm that the robes were enchanted, so that the chocolate frog stain would disappear.

Therefore... regarding her hypothesis... when will soda... not disappear?

“I need to conduct an experiment,” Hermione said confidently. - I want to spill soda on the floor and make sure it doesn't disappear. Do you have any paper towels in your wallet so I can mop up the puddle if that doesn't work?

“I have napkins,” the boy answered. His face still showed nothing.

Hermione took the soda and spilled a few drops on the floor.

After a couple of seconds, the liquid disappeared.

Eureka,” the girl whispered almost against her own will. Actually, she wanted to shout the word, but she was too restrained. Hermione suddenly realized everything and mentally kicked herself.

Well, of course! It was you who gave me the soda! It is not the robe that is enchanted. Soda was under the spell all this time!

The boy stood up, nodded solemnly and broke into a wide smile:

Well... do you need my research help, Hermione Granger?

I... um... - she felt euphoric, but was not sure how to respond to such a proposal.

They were interrupted by a weak, hesitant, light and even somewhat reluctant knock on the door.

The boy turned to the window and said:

I'm without a scarf. Won't you open it?

And then Hermione finally realized why the boy - no, the Boy Who Lived, Harry Potter - was walking around with a scarf wrapped around his head when they met, and she felt a little stupid for not realizing sooner. It's strange, before that she believed that Harry Potter was the type who proudly showed himself to the whole world. But it turned out that he was much more shy than he seemed at first glance.

Outside the door, Granger saw a trembling boy who looked exactly like the one who had knocked.

“No,” Hermione shook her head, and then her desire to help others became fully involved. -Have you checked all the compartments here?

Yes,” whispered a new acquaintance.

So, you need to check the rest of the cars,” the girl perked up, “I’ll help you.” By the way, I'm Hermione Granger.

The boy was ready to faint from gratitude.

Neville looked like he was about to burst into tears. Hermione turned around angrily. Could Harry Potter really abandon a little boy in trouble for the sake of his peace of mind...

What? Why not?

You see, said Harry Potter, a thorough check of the entire train will take a lot of time, the toad may not be found until it arrives at Hogwarts, and then it will be in trouble. So it is much more correct to go straight to the first carriage to the elders and ask them for help. That's what I did when I tried to find you, Hermione, but they had no idea where to look. But I believe the elders have spells or magical items that will make finding the toad much easier. We are only first-years.

This definitely made sense.

Can you get to the prefects' carriage on your own? - Harry Potter asked the boy. - I have reasons not to show my face unless necessary.

Suddenly Neville opened his mouth and pulled back:

What? What-what-what?

Harry Potter stood up abruptly and turned to the door:

I? Never! Do I look like a villain who would give a child candy?

Neville rolled his eyes.

Are you Harry Potter? The same Harry Potter? You?!

No, actually there are three Harry Potters on this train, I'm just one of them.

Neville squeaked quietly and ran out of the compartment. The sound of quickly retreating footsteps was replaced by the sound of the carriage door opening and closing.

Hermione sat down heavily on the bench. Harry Potter closed the compartment door and sat down next to him.

Can you explain to me what's going on? - Hermione raised her voice. Is she really doomed to constant confusion around Harry Potter?

Well, Fred, George and I just saw this poor boy on the platform. The woman accompanying him left for a minute, and he was terribly frightened. As if he was about to be attacked by Death Eaters. So, they say that fear is often worse than what is feared. And I decided: the guy will only benefit if his worst nightmares come true and it turns out that they are not as bad as he thought...

Hermione was stunned into silence.

“...Fred and George enchanted the scarves we wrapped around our heads to make them appear dark and blurry, as if we were ghost kings in grave shrouds...”

She didn't like where the story was going at all.

- ... we gave him all the candy I bought and shouted something like: “Let's give him money! Ha ha ha! Have some knuts, boy! Here’s a silver shekel for you!” They began jumping around him, laughing devilishly, and so on. At first I thought someone in the crowd would intervene, but the bystander effect kept everyone in place until people realized what we were doing, and then, obviously, they were too confused to react. In the end, he stammered: “Go away.” We howled and ran away, crying that the sunlight was burning us. I hope that after this he will be less afraid when bullies pester him. By the way, this technique is called “desensitization.”

Okay, she didn't guess at all how this story would end.

Despite the fact that part of her fully understood his motives, the flames of righteous anger inherent in Hermione's nature burst out.

It's horrible! You are terrible! Poor boy! What you did is disgusting!

I think the correct word to use is “funny.” In any case, I suggest looking from the other side: did this cause more harm than good, or vice versa? If you have arguments in favor of one of the possible answers to this question, then I will be glad to listen to them. And I won't take into account the rest of the criticism until we deal with it. I, of course, agree that my action looks terrible, humiliating, disgusting, especially since it concerns a frightened little boy, but the point is different. The rightness of an action is determined not by how good it looks or what it means, but by what its consequences are. This is called consequentialism, by the way. .

Hermione opened her mouth to say something very sharp, but all thoughts suddenly flew out of her head, and she could only squeeze out:

What if he has terrible nightmares? ?

I think he had nightmares without our help. But now, if he has bad dreams, they will involve creepy monsters handing out chocolates. Actually, that's the whole point.

Hermione's mind hiccupped in confusion whenever she tried to get angry.

Is your life always this unusual? - she finally squeezed out.

Harry Potter's face beamed with pride.

I diligently make it unusual. Here is the result of hard and painstaking work.

So...” Hermione began and fell silent awkwardly.

So,” Harry Potter continued, “what areas of science are you familiar with?” I studied higher mathematics, I understand a little about Bayesian probability theory and decision theory, and I know cognitive science quite well. I read the first volume of Feynman's lectures, "Decision Making in Uncertainty: Rules and Prejudices", "Language in Thought and Action", "The Psychology of Influence", "Rational Choice in an Uncertain World", "Gödel, Escher, Bach", "Stepping into future"…

The mutual examination of the list of books read continued for several minutes until it was interrupted by a timid knock on the door.

This time he actually cried.

I went to the first carriage and found the headman, he t-told me that the headmen don’t deal with such a small thing as m-missing toads.

The Boy-Who-Lived's face changed. His lips pressed into a thin line.

And what colors did he wear? Green and silver? - Harry asked gloomily and coldly.

N-no, he had a red and gold badge.

- Red and gold! - Hermione couldn't resist. - But these are Gryffindor colors!

Harry Potter made a sound like the angry hiss of a snake, causing both her and Neville to flinch.

It seems , - Harry hung on every word, - searching for a toad lost by a first-year is not a heroic enough action for a Gryffindor prefect. Come on, Neville. This time I will be with you. Maybe the Boy Who Lived will get more attention. First we will look for a headman who knows the appropriate spell. If there is no such thing, we will find prefects who are not afraid to get their hands dirty. If this fails, then I will gather my fans and we will turn the train inside out.

The Boy Who Lived jumped up and grabbed Neville's hand. Hermione suddenly realized that they were the same height (though part of her insisted that Harry Potter was one foot taller and Neville was at least six inches shorter).

Stay! - he threw it to her (no, wait - to his chest!), left the compartment and tightly closed the door behind him.

Hermione probably should have gone with them, but for a moment Harry Potter seemed so intimidating that she was glad to stay.

Everything was so mixed up in her head that she didn’t even really understand “The History of Ogwarts.” It felt like she had been run over by a steam roller and flattened into a pancake. She didn't know what to think, didn't understand what she felt or why. So the girl simply sat by the window and began to look at the landscapes passing by.

But at least she understood the reason for the slight sadness inside.

Perhaps Gryffindor wasn't as good as she thought.

You come to your first yoga class. You are a little worried about the extra pounds and the fact that the tight uniform reveals all the flaws in your figure. You are afraid to expose yourself to ridicule.

Your gaze is immediately drawn to a group of model-looking people talking in the corner. As you walk past them, you hear loud laughter. Oh my God, are they laughing at me?

You take a seat at the back of the class, where no one can see you. The trainer asks everyone to take the pose of a sneaking fish. My God, does everyone really know this pose?

You try to keep your balance and end up falling onto the mat with a crash. You start looking around to make sure no one noticed. Crap! The guy next to you barely hides his grin. SO I KNEW IT. Everyone is laughing at me.

After the class, trying not to meet anyone’s gaze, you quickly leave the room and promise yourself never to do yoga again.

Confirmation error strikes again

During the lesson, you looked for confirmation of your fears in everything - in the laughter of a group of models, in the grin of that guy. At the same time, you ignored everything that did not prove your fears - in fact, all the other visitors to the hall who barely paid attention to you.

The tendency to confirm one's point of view is understood as a person's ability to search for, interpret and remember information that protects the views he has already formed.

This tendency is extremely insidious. It influences all your decisions. For all. From day to day. To choose purchases and a life partner, for health, career, emotions and finances. All this happens unconsciously without your knowledge.

How does confirmation bias work?

It has an impact in three ways:

1. Search for information

Confirmation bias affects how you perceive the world. When you're sitting alone at home, in a bad mood, you find yourself drawn to Facebook or Instagram every now and then. Looking through photos taken by people while traveling, at parties and weddings, you are convinced that everyone you know has a good life. And say to yourself: “What a lonely loser I am.”

You're sitting at home and feeling lousy just because making a choice to seek information that confirms your gloomy mood. You understood perfectly well that viewing such photos would only worsen your condition, but you still looked for them.

2. Interpretation of available information

Confirmation bias also influences the perception of neutral information, subordinating it to your beliefs.

When you fall in love, your partner seems like a beautiful and flawless Adonis. You don't notice a single flaw in him. But as soon as the relationship begins to deteriorate, suddenly, out of the blue, all the shortcomings of your other half appear before you: coffee breath, hair left in the sink and the manner of droning incessantly on topics that do not interest you at all.

You're dating the same person but you perceive his actions differently depending on your feelings.

3. Memorizing events

Even memories are influenced by confirmation bias. People interpret and sometimes even change memories depending on their beliefs. In a classic experiment, students at Princeton and Dartmouth were shown a game between their schools' teams. Princeton College students remember more of the infractions committed by Dartmouth players, and vice versa.

Both groups were fundamentally convinced of the superiority of their college. Therefore, they remembered more examples that demonstrated their educational institution With positive side, and the enemy - with a negative one.

Why am I like this?

You are looking for confirmation of your views, because it is not cool to be wrong. If mistakes happen to you, it means you are not as smart as you thought. And so you are looking for information that confirms what you already know.

In a famous experiment, participants were presented with facts that contradicted their political beliefs. As a result, it turned out that when receiving information that does not coincide with our views, the areas of the brain responsible for physical pain are activated, as if awareness of mistakes causes bodily pain.

It is much easier to take the opposite point of view on issues that you care little about. But there are also firmly rooted beliefs that form the basis of your personality (for example, confidence in your own goodness or the correctness of your political views). Facts that contradict such beliefs often cause cognitive dissonance - a feeling severe stress and anxiety.

He, in turn, triggers the “fight or flight” reaction - you either insist on your own and become increasingly convinced that you are right (“hit”), or evade such facts (“run away”).

Your brain's main purpose is self-defense

This statement applies to both physical and psychological aspect. When opposing facts collide in your head, your brain perceives it as a psychological threat to your personal identity and protects you in the same way it would protect you from a physical threat.

Unable to process all existing information

It takes enormous effort to compare opposing hypotheses and try to evaluate the arguments for and against each.

Therefore, your brain optimizes to find the shortest path. It is too difficult to evaluate conflicting information and decide what is true. It is much easier to find two or three arguments in support of an existing point of view.

What should I do about it?

1. Allow confidence to give way to curiosity.

If the goal of every interaction you have with people is to prove that you are right, then you will certainly be influenced by the bias to confirm your point of view.

The researchers looked at two groups of schoolchildren. Members of the first avoided discussing complex, controversial issues because they were afraid of making mistakes. Students in the other group actively participated in such discussions for the opportunity to learn something new, even at the risk of being wrong. The second group regularly achieved greater academic success.

Try to approach life with curiosity and admiration, and don't focus on being right about everything. When you are willing to make mistakes, you open yourself up to new things.

2. Look for those who disagree with you and try to understand them

Understanding different points of view can help you improve your own. According to researchers, even the most deeply held beliefs can be changed. Want to know how? Surround yourself with people with opposing views.

Let's say you're looking to buy a house and you think you've already chosen the one. Ask a friend to play devil's advocate and try to talk you out of the deal. This way, you can ensure that you are considering more than just your point of view and make rational choices.

3. Think about how you think

In order to resist cognitive distortions, you need to monitor your instinctive reactions. The next time you come across facts that completely coincide with your views, stop. Think about your beliefs and try to challenge them.

Let's say you're a big coffee lover. Without a morning cup, you are simply unable to work normally. When you scroll through your Facebook news feed, your attention will be drawn to articles promoting the benefits of coffee.

It's quite easy to read an article like this and say, "Aha, this totally fits my point." The next time you catch yourself doing this, try to look for information that contradicts your beliefs.

Conclusion

The tendency to confirm one's point of view is an integral part of the decision-making process. It's an evolutionary trait that sets the tone for your worldview, and it can't always be overcome. But when you make important decisions - concerning love, health, money - it is in your interests to reduce its influence as much as possible. Learning and understanding how confirmation bias works will give you the opportunity to compensate for its shortcomings and begin to make more rational decisions.

So the next time you go from sneaking fish pose to flying chihuahua pose, don't worry and remember - no one is looking at you.

In one bitter song, a lady complained about a bad man who first put rose-colored glasses on her and then broke them. The last act of this almost drama directly relates to our topic today. After all, we are once again exposing built-in and often erroneous heuristics, all these rules thumb and quick conclusions. Anyone who makes decisions under conditions of uncertainty should quickly get rid of them. In fact, for all of us.

Of all the tendencies towards self-deception, the most widespread and ineradicable is confirmation bias. In Russian, the more common expression is “wishful thinking,” but confirmation bias goes further. Rather, it is a universal way to create solutions that are acceptable to oneself. At the same time, it is a defense mechanism through which our mind defends important ideals.

In this way, confirmation bias protects our psyche from injury and is probably better than making small mistakes. Were the Americans on the Moon or taking pictures in the pavilion? Can Kashpirovsky heal from a distance? Is a republic better or a monarchy? In general, all this is not so important that you remove the protective field of your mind and find yourself disoriented for a long time. But what if the stakes are high and we're here with our own biases? Let's look at the results of cognitive experiments to better understand and feel the mechanism of this self-deception.

Wason's selection problem

In Peter Wason's famous experiment in 1960, subjects were given the numbers 2, 4, 6. They had to name the next three elements of the original sequence, and then guess the rule itself. The experimenter indicates yes if the sequence matches the rule, and no otherwise. As you might guess, many started with 8, 10, 12. The experimenter showed yes, and it seemed to the subjects that they had guessed the rule. However, their rule - even numbers in ascending order - did not coincide with the present one. This was followed by 3 other equally correct elements of the sequence: for example, 5, 7 and 9. And again the wrong conclusion. Experiment participants came up with their own rules and looked for confirmation of them, because of which they could not guess what the experimenter had planned. If they had tested alternative hypotheses, the result would have been much better.

It was a revelation. Many similar experiments have revealed other facets of the confirmation bias. It's not a matter of numbers, but a way of thinking. For example, the experimenter asks subjects to play a quiz on historical topic and then shows the result of one of the players, who, like a real expert, has never made a mistake. Next, the experimenter tells one half of the participants that the so-called expert will play for them, and tells the other half that he will play against them. Among his allies there were significantly more who recognized him as competent in history than among his opponents. The latter were inclined to consider his success the result of luck and saw the “slumdog millionaire” effect.

In Mark Snyder's experiment, subjects had to find out through a series of questions whether someone was an extrovert. The questions they asked were already designed as if they were really an extrovert, and all that remains is to confirm this. For example, participants asked about how their interlocutor makes new friends or how he knows how to liven up a party. Accordingly, the test for introversion had no alternative and also consisted of questions that made it possible to confirm this. For example, questions about what factors prevent the subject from opening up in front of people or what irritates him in noisy parties. Importantly, criticality and alternative hypotheses did not appear even where the subjects benefited from being promised a financial reward.

Confirmation bias in sports and betting

The same thing happens in sports. Judges do not have enough time and review to be completely objective. Coaches are distrustful of statistical calculations, trusting more in their intuition, but in fact - confirmation bias. There is a fairly persistent cliché in basketball about the “lucky hand”: when a player is in shape, he puts the ball in the basket over and over again. The team's play is built around this. 9 out of 10 fans also believe this. We recently talked about how people are experts in determining the randomness of a series of events. It was the same this time. In one of the most famous modern works in cognitive psychology (1985), Thomas Gillovich, Amos Tversky and Robert Vallon convincingly refuted the “lucky hand” effect. By collecting statistics on all shots taken by the Philadelphia 76ers, they tested the hypothesis that a successful shot or shots increased the chances of making the next ball in the basket. The hypothesis was not confirmed. This is the same random and independent event, like tossing a coin, only the probability distribution differs from 50/50.

This study was greeted by sports fans, to put it mildly, without enthusiasm. After that, the scientists “counted” the Boston Celtic club, but this time they analyzed free throws. The same thing this time, nothing more than randomness: a few successful throws, then the effectiveness decreases, and the overall picture looks as interesting as ordinary white noise. What Boston Celtic coach Red Auerbach said about this: “They did some research, I don’t care.”

Let's imagine ourselves on the eve of the semi-final match of the 2017 Confederations Cup Portugal - Chile. If you are a fan of the Portuguese national team, which of these facts will you pay more attention to and which one will you ignore:

• Ronaldo's uncertain play during the championship;
• Portugal - European champion - defeated 4-time world champions in the final;
• the robot Baxter predicted the victory of the Chilean team;
• The Chileans played poorly in the previous match with Australia.

I think the answer to this question is obvious. As we remember, the Chilean team won. True, only in the penalty shootout. To ensure that confirmation bias does not result in financial losses for you in sports betting, I have three recommendations for you:

1. Avoid betting on your favorite team's matches.
2. Make decisions at your desk when you have access to a variety of information, not just what you remember.
3. Don't try to get rid of it completely confirming misstatement. It is hardly possible. Just take this phenomenon into account and try to formulate and test alternative hypotheses to the main one.

P.S. The experimenter's rule in the first example was: whole numbers in ascending order.